Indian Wells ATP Preview: Welcome back, Novak; Djokovic or the field?

Which is the more significant fact: That Novak Djokovic has won three straight Grand Slam titles, or that he hasn’t been past the fourth round at Indian Wells since 2016? For anyone trying to predict the ultimate outcome at the BNP Paribas Open this year, that’s probably the question you want to try to answer first. Is Djokovic a mortal lock, the way this five-time Indian Wells champion would have been in his prime? Or is there still just a hint of the vulnerability he’s shown since turning 30? The fates of the other 95 players in the men’s draw will turn on the answer. Here’s a look ahead at what it might be.

Since his resurgence at Wimbledon last summer, Djokovic has been perfect at the Slams, but he hasn’t been a slouch at the Masters 1000s, either; last year he won Cincinnati and Shanghai. But if he’s going to be beaten these days, it’s going to be in the best-of-three set format. In the three events he played between Shanghai and the Australian Open, he lost finals to Karen Khachanov and Alexander Zverev, and a semifinal to Roberto Bautista Agut.

Is there anyone in his draw who might be able to do the same thing? Funny you should ask: Djokovic could play Nick Kyrgios in the third round. Kyrgios beat Djokovic at Indian Wells in 2017, and he just resurrected his career with a title run in Acapulco. Provided Kyrgios is interested in keeping that run going and knocking off another superstar, this should make for a heckuva night-match spectacle. It will also be one Kyrgios can win.

Players to Watch:

Dominic Thiem. The slow courts in Indian Wells should suit him, but he’s just 8-5 here, and has never reached the semis.

Gael Monfils. He won a title in Rotterdam two weeks ago and reached a semi in Dubai last week. Can he improve on his 10-10 record in the desert? His draw makes it look possible.

Wild Card: Reilly Opelka. The New York Open champ starts against Leonardo Mayer, and will play Monfils if he makes the second round.

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Alexander Zverev was convincingly beaten by Kyrgios in the Acapulco final, but that doesn’t mean it was a bad week for the German. He needed a solid result after getting drummed out of the Australian Open in straight sets by Milos Raonic. Zverev has yet to do much damage in Indian Wells, but no one loves a Masters 1000 like he does.

Still, this section isn’t without its obstacles: The three seeds in Zverev’s half are Raonic, Grigor Dimitrov and Alex De Minaur. The other half is led by No. 5 seed Kevin Anderson and No. 9 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Wild card: Felix Auger-Aliassime, who will start against Cameron Norrie, a semifinalist in Acapulco. The winner plays Tsitsipas.

Potential second-round match to watch (or cringe at): Alexander Zverev vs. his brother, Mischa. Come at me, bro—literally.

Semifinalist: A. Zverev

Roger Federer won his first title in Indian Wells in 2004, and his fifth and most recent in 2017. He also had match points to win a sixth last year against Juan Martin del Potro. So while Federer is only the fourth seed, he’s still a favorite, especially after his win last week in Dubai.

But there’s an early land mine in Federer’s path: If the most-anticipated third-round match in the top half is Djokovic vs. Kyrgios, the most-anticipated in the bottom half will be Federer vs. Stan Wawrinka. Not that Stan is a lock to get there; his second-round match could be against Marton Fucsovics. Last year in Toronto, Wawrinka saved match points to beat the Hungarian 12-10 in a third-set tiebreaker.

Also in this quarter: Kei Nishikori, Denis Shapovalov, Marin Cilic

All-SoCal first round: Taylor Fritz vs. Steve Johnson

Semifinalist: Federer

After his second-round loss to Kyrgios in Acapulco, Nadal was due for a decent draw, and he has one in Indian Wells. Rafa’s path could take him through Jared Donaldson, Diego Schwartzman, Daniil Medvedev and John Isner. Not a cakewalk, certainly, but not a murderer’s row of giant hitters, either. Unless and until he faces Isner, Rafa will get his swings in, which he’ll like.

Question Mark: Isner. He was a finalist here in 2012, but his results have been trending downward in the desert in recent years. Does he have another deep run left? His draw—Guido Pella and Pablo Carreño Busta are the nearby seeds—could facilitate it.

Russians to Watch: Khachanov and Medvedev. When the year began, all eyes were on the surging Khachanov. But through the first two months, it has been his Davis Cup partner Medvedev who has been the breakout performer.

Semifinalist: Medvedev

Semifinals: Djokovic d. Zverev; Federer d. Medvedev

Final: Djokovic d. Federer