Indian Wells Betting Preview: Jack Draper vs. Holger Rune

A meeting between Holger Rune and Jack Draper in the BNP Paribas Open final isn’t what many expected to cap nearly two weeks in Indian Wells.

While Jannik Sinner obviously couldn’t be in this championship match, everybody thought we’d at least see Carlos Alcaraz. After all, the Spaniard had won back-to-back BNP Paribas Open titles heading into this year’s event, and these conditions have always brought out the best in him. However, Draper went into Saturday’s semi-final match with the belief that he could handle his business, and that’s exactly what he did in a 6-1, 0-6, 6-4 victory. Rune was similarly ready for his showdown with Daniil Medvedev, winning 7-5, 6-4 in a fun two-set match. Now, while we aren’t getting any of the young Grand Slam champions in the final of the “fifth Slam,” we are being treated to a match between two exciting young talents that could very well win majors some day.

I’m banking on Rune, who’s available at plus-money odds, to come out on top.

It’s hard to argue with anybody that likes Draper to win this match. This is more or less a 50-50 matchup. However, that in itself suggests Rune is the right play. Getting close to +140 odds on a coin flip of a match is the dream. And honestly, if I was lining this match, I’d probably have Rune as something like a -120 favorite.

Draper’s win over Alcaraz was the biggest win of his career, meaning there’s some letdown potential here — even though the Brit is going for the first 1000-level title of his career. It’ll be interesting to see what type of focus he comes to the court with. Meanwhile, Rune has already won a 1000-level title and knows exactly the type of effort it takes to get across the finish line.

It also should be noted that Alcaraz did Draper a lot of favors in their semifinal. Draper deserves a ton of credit for taking advantage of the openings Alcaraz presented, but the Brit was definitely fortunate to be on the right side of a weak performance from the Spaniard. I commented on the tactical match-up quite a bit on X, but Alcaraz simply wasn’t finding the court for the first half hour of the match. He was ripping shots into the net, hitting them long and missing them wide, essentially going everywhere but in the court. It wasn’t until the second set that Alcaraz realized that hitting with more shape, and hitting with depth, was his best path to victory. Then, in the third set, we saw Alcaraz get cute with some poorly-timed drop shots, and he also tested Draper’s elite backhand a little too much for my liking. I’m not sure Rune will do Draper as many solids.

Read more: Carlos Alcaraz: First set vs. Jack Draper in Indian Wells 'one of the worst' he's ever played

Rune is definitely capable of having meltdowns himself, but he has been better about sticking to game plans this season. Against Matteo Berrettini at the Australian Open, Rune targeted the Italian’s weaker backhand side and put an insane amount of work into blocking returns back as a returner. And in his semi-final match against Medvedev here, we saw a tactical masterpiece from the Dane. In key service points, Rune was able to hit his targets on Medvedev’s forehand side. He also did a great job of changing up the heights and angles of his ground strokes, throwing Medvedev off in longer exchanges. It was impressive considering Medvedev is viewed as one of the game’s best strategists, and now it’s hard to envision Rune failing to out-think Draper here. That said, look for Rune to attack Draper’s forehand, which is something Alcaraz wasn’t willing to do. From there, he’ll figure out other ways to approach the match-up.

Rune also happened to beat Draper in straight sets in Cincinnati last year, and that match was played in fast conditions. Draper’s remarkable serve should have been more difficult for Rune, who was a worse returner in 2024 than he is in 2025, to get back. But the Dane had no problem putting pressure on in return games, and the slower conditions in the desert should theoretically allow Rune to do more damage on the Brit’s serve. The courts will also give Rune more time to defend the baseline.

As I mentioned earlier, these two are pretty evenly matched, so nothing would surprise me here. But this feels like a good number to grab on Rune.

PIck: Rune ML (+139)