Tsitsipas takes on Berrettini; Swiatek and Andreeva feature: Indian Wells, Day 5 Preview

Matteo Berrettini vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

“2022 called, and it wants its big match back” is one way to look at this contest between aging Next Genners. Tsitsipas is 26 and ranked ninth; Berrettini is 28 and ranked 29th. After reaching three Slam finals between them from 2021 to 2023, neither has threatened at the majors in a couple of years.

But while neither has turned out to be Alcaraz or Sinner, they’re not washed up quite yet, either. Berrettini won the ATP’s Comeback Player of the Year award in 2024, and Tsitsipas just won a title in Dubai, where he beat Berrettini 6-4 in the third set in the quarterfinals. Tsitsipas also leads their head-to-head 4-1, and is 3-0 against him on hard courts.

A lot of those matches were close, though, and not much separates these guys in general. I’ll say that Berrettini returns the favor from Dubai in another tight one. Winner: Berrettini

Iga Swiatek vs. Dayana Yastremska

If you want to know how to beat Swiatek, you have to look first to Jelena Ostapenko. The Latvian has never lost to her, and she beat her handily less than a month ago.

If you’re looking for a player who closely matches Ostapenko’s style, you would probably look first to Yastremska. Both women essentially go for broke on every shot; they have the capability to hit a winner, or make an error, at any moment. Swiatek, an attacking player by nature who uses a long, Western-grip swing on her forehand side, doesn’t like this. She gets rushed and rattled, has less control over the proceedings, and makes errors.

Last month, when Swiatek met Yastremska in Dubai, this prompted me to predict that the match would be a toss-up. Not only did Yastremska have the right game to beat Iga, she was 1-0 against her, and had just reached a final in Linz. The first set was indeed a toss-up; Swiatek won it 7-5. But then she won the second 6-0.

Can Yastremska keep it closer for longer, or even come out with a win, this time? She looked sharp in her IW opener. But then so did Swiatek. Winner: Swiatek

Mirra Andreeva vs. Clara Tauson

These are two junior No. 1s of the past who are looking more like the WTA’s future every week. Andreeva, 17, just won her first 1000 in Dubai, beat Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina back to back along the way, and joined the Top 10. Tauson, 21, began the year with a title, and then upset Aryna Sabalenka on her way to the Dubai final, where she lost to Andreeva 7-6 (1), 6-1. Which leaves her at a career-high 21.

Andreeva has the higher ceiling and the more well-rounded game. She’s tall but moves well; she can hit with pace, but isn’t a basher; and her backhand is already one of the game’s best. Tauson is a bit more one-dimensional; she’s an attacker, especially with her forehand, but not as much of a defender.

I’ll guess that the slow courts with favor Andreeva, and that this will be a preview of bigger matches to come. Winner: Andreeva

Bonus: Elina Svitolina v. Danielle Collins

Looking at most of their relevant numbers, you might expect that neither woman would be definitively favored here. Svitolina is 30, Collins 31. Svitolina has been ranked as high as No. 3, Collins as high as No. 7. Svitolina has reached three Slam semis and nine quarters. Collins has been to a final, a semi, and a quarter.

But there’s a set of numbers that tilts this match in one player’s direction: Collins is 2-0 against Svitolina, and she dropped a total of six games in those two matches (which were both on hard courts). It seems that, at least on those occasions, Svitolina’s moderate baseline pace fed right into Collins’ bigger ground-stroke wallop.

The pro-American crowd in Indian Wells, where Collins made her breakout run a few years ago, won’t hurt her, either. Winner: Collins