This one really had to hurt for Roger Federer. His 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 loss to Novak Djokovic in the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open on Saturday showcased more than one way that the Serb can beat him.
The first set was a continuation of Djokovic’s two previous straight-set victories over Federer this year, at the Australian Open and in Dubai. It was indisputable domination, confirming what his coach Marian Vajda had said in a pre-match interview about Novak’s improvement: “He can match Roger on the groundstrokes, forehand and backhand.” The stats showed that, as Djokovic won 55 percent of the rallies that lasted more than eight shots.
During the match, commentator Pam Shriver noted about Federer, “He cannot hit through Djokovic. When it’s a slugfest, he comes up second.”
That was six sets in a row for Djokovic against Federer, dating back to the Aussie Open semis, and it looked as if the pattern might continue into the second set.
But whether Djokovic began to be bothered by his knee—it required a fairly elaborate wrap—or whether he just had a letdown, his level gradually dipped. Federer capitalized with a break in the third game and held serve the rest of the way, adding another break in the final game of the set. He was sharper, but there was not quite the same quickness or crazy-good athletic retrieving that had marked Djokovic’s performance in the first set.
No longer sensing he was playing against an almost impenetrable opponent, Federer looked like he really believed. But he gave an indication of what was to come when he lost serve in the opening game of the third set, missing shots on four of the last five points.
Djokovic soon went up 2-0, but then seemed to be struggling. Federer started the 2-1 game with a beautiful forehand lob winner, and soon got back to 2-2 on a Djokovic double-fault into the net. With momentum solidly back in his side, Federer took a 30-15 lead in the fifth game against an increasingly uncomfortable-looking Djokovic. But here, it happened—Federer proceeded to lose 11 points in a row, seven of them coming on his own serve.
In the heart of the set that would decide the match, it is hard to imagine the Federer of old losing 11 consecutive points in what has to be described as a total collapse. Outplayed when both were fresh and trying to impose their games and wills in the opening set, and then completely losing touch with his form at crunch time in the final set, it was a double kick in the teeth for Federer. No one, even non-Federer fans, could feel comfortable witnessing such a humiliation. In their previous match in Dubai, Federer lost the last five games of the final set. This time it was four.
Listening to Federer going into the match, it became clear that he sees the match-up with Djokovic in a totally different way than the Serb. Federer likes to cite his three wins over Djokovic in Shanghai, Basel and London last fall and suggest that their rivalry is a continuum, which is “a continuous series of identical components.”
Djokovic, 23, surely views it as an evolution, with everything trending his way as the head-to-head grows with the 29-year-old Federer.
But, if the last two sets today are any indication, Djokovic, who peaked early on, is in for a tough fight tomorrow against Rafael Nadal, who got better today as his semifinal with Juan Martin del Potro went along.
—Tom Tebbutt