Indian Wells Final-Round Forecasts

INDIAN WELLS, CALIF.—The first half of tennis’s version of March Madness will conclude with its own Final Four here. All in all, there have been worse Sunday lineups: Simona Halep will take on Jelena Jankovic for the women’s title; following that, Novak Djokovic will take on Roger Federer for the men’s. Here’s quick look ahead at each.

This final won’t have the same ratings that one with Serena Williams would, but point for point and pound for pound it might be more entertaining. Halep and Jankovic are both runners and shot-makers who play freely and love to change direction with the ball whenever possible. Their rallies should be dynamic and varied.

So should the scores. The Romanian and the Serbian have played four times, and each match has gone the distance. JJ won the first their first meeting 7-5 in the third, Simona won their next two 7-6 in the third and 7-5 in the third, and she beat Jankovic 6-0 in the third the last time they played, at the 2014 Australian Open. Their battles tend to see-saw.

Each has been see-sawing her way through the draw so far this week as well. Halep has won three of her five matches in three sets, while four of Jankovic’s five wins have gone to a decider. Halep seems to be motivated in part by a desire to put her disappointing Aussie Open performance behind her (she’s mentioned her quarterfinal there loss more than once), while the 30-year-old Jankovic has recaptured the natural flow and joy that has always led to her best tennis. It may come down to who makes the last run. Winner: Jankovic

This is a match that both players sound primed to play. Federer says he’s been waiting for a year to get another crack at Nole, after losing to him 7-6 in the third set here last March. As for Djokovic, before he knew the outcome of the Federer-Raonic semi on Saturday, he said, “If I get to play Roger, it’s the ultimate final that I can have.”

It’s early in the year, and this isn’t a Slam, but neither guy is pretending that there’s not a lot at stake in this one. Indian Wells has been a bellwether event of late: Federer won it in 2012 on his way back to the No. 1 ranking; Rafael Nadal won it in 2013 and finished that year No. 1; and Djokovic did the same in 2014.

As far as motivation, I’d say the edge goes slightly to Djokovic. He’s the guy with the top ranking and the Australian Open trophy, but he’s also lost his last two matches to Federer, most recently in Dubai in February; a third straight defeat would give Federer a definite sense of momentum heading into the Grand Slam season. And while Federer has shown himself to be adept on the slow courts here in recent years, this is Djokovic’s surface of choice—his home court, as far as the conditions go.

Each has tried to deflect the pressure onto the other man. Federer says that beating Djokovic will be difficult because Novak is in the prime of his career. Djokovic says that Federer is “probably the player that is in the best form.” The bottom line is that both are healthy and playing well, neither has dropped a set this week, and neither should have to worry about fatigue on Sunday.

Federer typically gets off to a quicker start in their matches, and it's entirely possible that he'll come out and take the rallies to Djokovic for two straight sets. But I think the older man is also the one who has to worry a little bit more about having an off day, about having peaked a match or two too soon. This final is a toss-up in many ways, but I’ll take the younger player, the higher-ranked player, and the player who loves this surface just a little more. Winner: Djokovic