Indian Wells Men's Final Preview: Rafael Nadal vs. Taylor Fritz

INTERVIEW: Rafael Nadal, after his three-plus hour semifinal win over Carlos Alcaraz

Rafael Nadal won their only previous meeting, 6-3, 6-2, on hard courts in Acapulco in 2020. But there are reasons to think that Taylor Fritz can turn the tables in this one.

The most obvious is that the 35-year-old Nadal has spent a ton of time on the court this week. He beat Sebastian Korda in a third-set tiebreaker. He beat Reilly Opelka in two tiebreakers. He beat Nick Kyrgios 6-4 in the third set. And on Saturday he beat Carlos Alcaraz 6-3 in the third set, in three hours and 10 minutes of wind-challenged, maximally physical tennis. Nothing has come easily for Rafa this week.

But it isn’t just Rafa’s potential exhaustion, or foot pain, that will help Fritz. The 24-year-old American also happens to be having the best week of his career so far. He has hung tough in three-set matches when he hasn’t had his best, against Alex De Minaur, and Miomir Kecmanovic. And he has beaten a Top 10 opponent in Andrey Rublev, when he has had his best. Fritz has had played hard, powerful, no-frills tennis, and stayed patient through adversity. He also has a lot of the ingredients that have traditionally made for a Rafa-conqueror: He’s tall (6'5"), he has a two-handed backhand that allows him to take Nadal’s crosscourt forehand on the rise, and he has a serve that’s difficult to break.

It’s just that Rafa is Rafa, no matter how much tennis he has played. For the last 10 days, he has been finding a way to beat younger, taller, more powerful opponents. By now, you’re basically duty bound as a tennis fan to believe he’ll do it again. Winner: Nadal