Indian Wells Semifinal Previews: Rafael Nadal vs. Carlos Alcaraz; Taylor Fritz vs. Andrey Rublev

INTERVIEW: Andrey Rublev after his quarterfinal win

Andrey Rublev vs. Taylor Fritz

Would it surprise you to learn that Rublev and Fritz, who were born within a week of each other in 1997, have a 2-2 head-to-head record, and that one of Rublev’s wins came in the semi-exhibition known as the Next Gen Finals, which uses 4-game sets? As far as their career accomplishments go, the Russian, who has won 10 titles, has always been a cut above the American, who has won just one. When they face off, though, things tend to equal out. Fritz and Rublev both play straightforward, hard-hitting baseline games without a lot of slice or variety, and it’s the 6-foot-5 Fritz who has the superior serve. Will that superior serve, and the home-court advantage in Indian Wells, be enough to end Rublev’s 13-match win streak? I don’t think so. Winner: Rublev

Rafael Nadal vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Nadal has had a bumpy road to the semifinals. He has survived two three-set matches that he seemed destined at times to lose, and he has needed to go 4-0 in tiebreakers. Alcaraz, by contrast, has been in the express lane. He hasn’t dropped a set, or been forced to a breaker, in four matches. He looked, as Nadal described him, “unstoppable’ in his 6-4, 6-3 win over defending champion Cam Norrie in the quarters. Can the 18-year-old keep up that kind of level, and that kind of confidence, against his fellow Spaniard, and one of his idols?

The last time they met, on clay in Madrid, Alcaraz was predictably awed and out-classed, and was beaten 6-1, 6-2. But his game should match up better on hard courts, and he shouldn’t be quite so awed the second time out. Judging by how these two have played in Indian Wells so far, I’d guess that Alcaraz will come out with guns, and ground stroke winners, blazing—and that Nadal will eventually find a way to beat him. Winner: Nadal