Carlos Alcaraz defeats Daniil Medvedev to defend his Indian Wells title, Iga Swiatek beats Maria Sakkari for women's title

As with the men, the women’s draw at the BNP Paribas Open should give us a good idea of what the state of the WTA is today. Everyone in the Top 20, with the exceptions of two injured Czechs, Karolina Muchova and Petra Kvitova, is in the draw and hopefully healthy. There’s also a player ranked well outside the Top 20 at the moment, Naomi Osaka, who made a breakout run here in 2018. Can she do something similar six years later?

Full BNP Paribas Open women's singles draw.

Swiatek was two wins away from defending her 2022 BNP Paribas Open title last year; can she carry her Middle East momentum into the desert?

Advertising

First Quarter

Which Iga Swiatek will show up in the desert this year? The one who romped to a title in 2022, or the one who looked flummoxed in a 6-2, 6-2 defeat to Elena Rybakina in 2023? Swiatek has been usual self so far this season; that means she went out earlier than expected at the Australian Open, before blitzing her way to a title in Doha. Now she’ll take to the slow hard courts in Indian Wells, which should be to her liking.

Swiatek’s draw has the potential to become a revenge tour. She could play Linda Noskova, the woman who beat her in Melbourne, in her second match; Jelena Ostapenko, the woman who beat her at the US Open last year, in the quarterfinals; and Rybakina in the semis.

Also in this quarter: Ons Jabeur, Madison Keys, Donna Vekic, Venus Williams, Caroline Wozniacki, Mirra Andreeva, and Katie Boulter, champion last week in San Diego

First-round match to watch: Angelique Kerber vs. Petra Martic

Semifinalist: Swiatek

Marta Kostyuk is high on confidence after reaching her first major quarterfinal at the Australian Open and reaching a final last week in San Diego.

Advertising

Second Quarter

You wouldn’t know it from the big events, but Elena Rybakina has been in form in 2024. She has already won two titles and reached a third final, but she suffered an early defeat at the tournament that mattered most: the Australian Open. Now she’ll try again at Indian Wells, where she’s the defending champion.

Rybakina should like her draw. The seeds nearest her are No. 28 Anastasia Potapova, No. 21 Anna Kalinskaya, No. 13 Jasmine Paolini, and No. 12 Beatriz Haddad Maia. And her quarterfinal opponent is scheduled to be Marketa Vondrousova. Rybakina would be a strong favorite against any of them.

Dark Horse: Marta Kostyuk. The former prodigy is beginning to fulfill her potential.

First-round match to watch: 2021 champ Paula Badosa vs. U.S. teen Ashlyn Krueger. The winner plays Rybakina.

Players of Interest: Paolini and Kalinskaya. They played a surprise final at the 1000 in Dubai last month. Was that a dual flash in the pan, or do the Russian and the Italian have more upsets in them?

Semifinalist: Kostyuk

Is the BNP Paribas Open where Naomi Osaka, champion in 2018, breaks new ground in her comeback from maternity leave?

Advertising

Third Quarter

The last time Coco Gauff came back to U.S. hard courts, in 2023, she won three titles in four events, including her first major, at the US Open. After looking less than thrilled with her February performances in Doha and Dubai, the 19-year-old—who will be playing her last tournament as a teen—could use a similar change of scenery, and similar jolt of home-country support.

Gauff should also be able to use a draw like the one she has in Indian Wells. The seeds on her side of this quarter are No. 32 Anhelina Kalinina, No. 24 Elise Mertens, and No. 14 Liudmila Samsonova. Her stiffest competition may come from Australian Open finalist Zheng Qinwen, assuming the No. 8 seed reaches the quarterfinals.

Player to Watch: Naomi Osaka. The 2018 champion will start against a qualifier, and, if she wins, play Samsonova in the second round. If Osaka wants to make any inroads in the rankings during the first half of the season, she probably needs to do it this month, before the surfaces switch from hard courts, which she loves, to clay, which she doesn’t.

Semifinalist: Osaka

Runner-up in 2023, Sabalenka started the new season strong with a second Grand Slam victory in Melbourne.

Advertising

Fourth Quarter

Has Aryna Sabalenka lost her Australian Open momentum? She waited an extra week to return in Dubai, and promptly went out in her first match, to Donna Vekic. So if someone is going to knock off the No. 2 seed in Indian Wells, it will likely happen early, when she’s still getting her competitive juices flowing again. Could surprise Aussie Open semifinalist Dayana Yastremska be the woman to do it? If she and Sabalenka win their openers, they’ll play in the third round.

Jessica Pegula is the second-highest seed in this quarter, and could use a good result at an important event. After going out early in Australia and splitting with longtime coach David Witt, she did reach a semifinal last week in San Diego. Pegula might face Witt, and his new charge, Maria Sakkari, in the round of 16.

Player to Watch: Emma Navarro. The young American and 23rd seed has drastically improved her level and her results in 2024. She could play Elina Svitolina in the third round, and Sabalenka after that.

Wild Card: Emma Raducanu

Semifinalist: Sabalenka

Advertising