* !Picby Pete Bodo*
As you all know, today is International Women's Day. You did know that, didn't you? Well, either way you can just consider this post an effort, modest though it may be, to join in the worldwide celebration of what it means to be a woman. To be able to walk around, even in the coldest weather, without wearing socks. To have the courage to actually stop and ask for directions when you think you might be lost.
Let's start here: what do Angelique Kerber, Daniela Hantuchova, Lara Arruabarrena-Vecino, Sofia Arvidsson, Timea Babos, Sara Errani, and Su-Wei Hsieh have in common with WTA No. 1 Victoria Azarenka?
All of them have won tournaments since the Australian Open. That may make some of you sit up and ask, "Hey, what about Maria Sharapova, Serena and Venus Williams, Kim Clijsters, Petra Kvitova, Li Na, Sam Stosur?" The short answer, and it will have to do for now, is that they've all been MIA — certainly when it comes to the trophy presentation portion of the proceedings. In a more general sense, they've more or less been hiding in the tall uncut since the end of the first major.
This suggests that we're in for a wild and woolly ride in the desert. The women in the Top 10 have met so rarely in recent times that the WTA PR staff is going to have to re-introduce them to each other in the locker room. "Maria? Excuse me, have you met Petra? I just know you two will have a lot to talk about. . ."
So let's peer into the crystal ball, mirroring as much as possible the questions we raised re: the ATP players yesterday (which was not International Men's Day, in case you were wondering).
Highest seed among top 8 to lose before the quarterfinals — As tempting as it is to go with No. 4 Caroline Wozniacki, who's been sending such mixed messages about her game recently that she's likely in for a serious fall, No. 8 Li Na is just too juicy a target.
She's played exactly one match since the Australian Open, and had to quit due to injury in that one. While Li's hard court game is solid, the conditions in Indian Wells, where it can be cool and windy —* or baking hot and still —* present additional challenges that I don't believe she'll want to meet.
Worst deal for sisters since the heyday of Venus and Serena Williams — Once again, No. 5 Agnieszka Radwanska and her wild-card sister, Urszula, were in the same half of the draw. But this time they won't meet. Qualifier Michaella Krajicek beat No. 85 Urszula, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, in a two hour, 37-minute opener.
The sisters met in the first round at the U.S. Open last August, and then after Urszula qualified for Sydney she had to play her first-round main draw match against Aggie. On top of that, the two other times the girls met in a main draw it was also in the first round (Dubai and Eastbourne, 2009). Guess what, though? Aggie is just 3-1, despite the fact that Urszula's career-high ranking was No. 62, while Aggie has established herself as a fixture in the top 10.
Best battle of the screamers — If former Grand Slam champ and No. 10 seed Francesca Schiavone can hold her game together (it's admittedly a tall order, because Schiavone is closing on 32), she could meet No. 2 Sharapova in the semis. Wouldn't that be a treat for the ears?
Unfortunately, Sharapova v. Azarenka (the projected final, which would be a repeat of the Australian Open final) is a little bit like your typical Novak Djokovic v. Rafael Nadal match — too much of the same thing from both sides of the net, although in the case of the women it's the screaming, and with the two men it's the baseline style of play. Schiavone, however, punctuates her shots with much more earthy, gutteral noises, which compliment Sharapova's high-pitched shrieks much like Roger Federer's aggressive game matches up pleasantly with Djokovic's baseline style and interestingly — if unsuccessfully — with Nadal's game.
Most successful wild card — Let's go with Sloane Stephens, who's an LA kind of girl (she has a home there, as well as in south Florida) and the Palm Springs area has always been a play ground for Angelenos. Stephens saved a match point and overcame 11 double faults to fight past Canadian qualifier Aleksandra Wozniak, 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 (7), in the first round last night (I'll bet Sloane's heart skipped a beat when she first glanced at the draw and saw that surname!). She will face No. 18 seed Kerber for a shot at — probably — No. 13 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
All in all, the draw gods could have been less friendly. Dare we hope for a fourth-rounder between Stephens and Christina McHale? Now those of you who are still struggling to master the obvious can feel free to make some absurd remark about my inordinate focus on American players.
Oldest player to win a main-draw match — Are you kidding me? Kimiko Date-Krumm is in the house — or at any rate the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. At 41, she's not getting older, she's getting better, and she showed it with her 6-1, 6-3 win over Pauline Parmentier in the first round. Does Date-Krumm have a few more big upset in her racquet?
Highest seed among the second 8 to lose before the fourth-round — No. 13 Pavlyuchenkova hasn't won a match since that unforgettable triumph over no. 43 Klara Zakopalova in the first round of the Australian Open. Vania King has beaten her this year and King swept Acapulco champion Sara Errani on Wednesday and will have a strong shot to extend Pavlychenkova's losing streak.
Most endangered Russian — Pavlyuchenkova non withstanding, No. 25 Svetlana Kuznetsova gets exactly one match before she's projected meet top-seeded Azarenka in the third round. This provides one of those good lessons that flaky players like Sveta are prone to ignore, which is that life becomes a lot tougher — no matter who you are — if you let things slide long and far enough. And Kuznetsova has slid further than Eric Heiden.
Frankly, though, if Kuznetsova can get inspired and beat or find some other way around Azarenka, she could earn back a lot of credibility, quickly. The most dangerous player in her quarter after Azarenka is Aggie Radwanska.
!PicPlayer most likely to leave the court in tears — The answer is obvious: No. 9 Vera Zvonareva. She's a former champ (2009) and she's been a quarter finalist on two other occasions, so an early loss here would be especially dispiriting. Especially if it's in her first match, to 41-year old Kimiko Date-Krumm.
Should she win that first match, she'll probably have to face volatile, ever-dangerous No. 19 Daniela Hantuchova in a battle of former champions. Hantuchova, in fact, has won Indian Wells twice.
Gut check time, top half — No. 12 Jelena Jankovic has been to the semis in her last two tournaments, Dubai (l. to A. Radwanska) and Kuala Lampur (l. to Martic). Once again, she showed herself an equal opportunity loser. Radwanska is No. 6 in the world (and Jankovic beat No. 5 Stosur one round earlier), but Martic is No. 66. Jankovic still lost a decisive third-set tiebreaker to Martic, 7-5. Jankovic was the 2010 champ in the desert, and she hasn't won a tournament since. This would be a good time to reverse the slide.
Most intriguing first-round match —**Gisela Dulko v. Jelena Dokic. Dulko holds the record for the best run by a qualifier at Indian Wells (quarters, 2004, l. to Davenport). In 11 years, she's lost in the first round just once. And she's had wins in the Tennis Garden over Justine Henin, Nadia Petrova, Bethanie Mattek-Sands, Tatiana Golovin and Vania King. Dokic, you'll remember, has been through numerous comebacks in a star-crossed career. Dulko is 27 and No. 126; Dokic is almost 29 and No. 118. This one ought to be a war.
Gut check time, bottom half — No. 6 Sam Stosur has managed two consecutive wins just once this year, at Doha, where she made the final (l. to Azarenka). But she got just six games off Jelena Jankovic in her second match (third-round) in Dubai.
Stosur prefers clay, it's true, but she's been to the semis at Indian Wells (2010, with wins over Pavlyuchenkova and former champ Zvonareva) and really needs to string together some wins before that Doha final begins to look like a fluke. The toughest seed in her quarter is No. 2 Sharapova, with a huge drop off after that (the next highest seed is No. 11 Sabine Lisicki).
Most likely surprise semifinalist — No. 17 Peng Shuai is in the same quarter as No. 4 Wozniacki but the next highest seed in that quarter is No. 7 Marion Bartoli, whom Peng beat in Dubai. Beyond that, No. 10 Schiavone is fading, No. 15 Ana Ivanovic is unreliable. Wozniacki is clearly the greatest hurdle, but if Peng can get by her in a projected fourth-rounder, she could find herself in the semis.