It's time for Nick Kyrgios to go out and win himself a Grand Slam

The Break: Latest headlines and Australian Open preview

The last time we saw Nick Kyrgios in a meaningful match was in the middle of November, when he and Thanasi Kokkinakis failed to get out of the group stage in doubles at the ATP Finals. As for singles, the 27-year-old hasn’t played a match since October 6, when he earned a 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 win over Kamil Majchrzak in the Japan Open. The Australian then bowed out of the event before a quarterfinal match-up with Taylor Fritz—and that brings us to the 2023 Australian Open, in Melbourne.

Kyrgios, the world No. 21, is listed at +1600 to win his maiden Grand Slam title, with Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas the only players listed above him. The question now is whether the Australian can knock off some rust and find his form—form that took him to the Wimbledon final and US Open quarterfinals—while also finding a way to block out the outside noise that comes with playing at home. We’re betting he does a decent job of doing that.

Kyrgios has to be pleased with the road in front of him. The 27-year-old does have a potential date with Djokovic in the quarterfinals, but Holger Rune is the only legitimate threat before then. Kyrgios should feel good about his chances against the youngster, however, considering his elite serve and powerful groundstrokes.

Having to face Djokovic before the semifinals is a tough pill to swallow, but Kyrgios is going to have to get by the final boss at some point. And maybe it’s best that it wouldn't be in a semi or a final, given the added pressure. The court conditions in Melbourne also work in Kyrgios’ favor, playing fast and benefiting big servers and quick-strike baseliners.

Last season, Kyrgios had a ridiculous 92.9% hold percentage; it was the second time in three years that he topped 92.5%. An argument can be made that Kyrgios is the best server on the planet, but at the same time, he’s no servebot. Kyrgios is rock-solid on the baseline, and with improved fitness, he moves well for a player his size.

The only thing holding Kyrgios back is his lack of recent match play, but he has long been productive as a part-time player. In fact, his lighter schedule seems to keep him more engaged. He also looked spry in his exhibition match against Djokovic last Friday, a positive sign after knee and ankle pain forced him out of action in the lead-up to this event.

At +1600, it’s hard to lay off the Australian with such a high ceiling. We’d suggest putting a few units on Djokovic at -110, while also throwing one on Kyrgios. The winner of this tournament should be the player that emerges from what could be an epic showdown between the two friends (and former rivals) in the quarterfinals. And this time, we think Kyrgios has what it takes to overcome Djokovic.