Advertising

Last week at Wimbledon, after his four-set win over countryman Matteo Berrettini, top seed Jannik Sinner said, “There were some little ups and downs, which is normal for five sets.”

Seven days into the fortnight, those words could serve as the slogan for the Top 3 seeds on the men’s side. Sinner, Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have all had their share of ups and downs so far—and at least one of their downs was more than a “little” one. Sinner and Alcaraz, as great as they already are, may never be the types to roll through a draw at the All England Club without dropping a set, the way Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal both did on their way to their legendary final in 2008.

Through four rounds, Sinner has lost two sets, and he had to save a set point in a third, against Ben Shelton on Sunday. Alcaraz has surrendered three sets, and he very nearly lost his third-round match to Frances Tiafoe. For his part, Djokovic, who is recovering from left-knee surgery, has dropped two sets through three rounds, and has only intermittently looked sharp.

The question, as the second week begins and the field narrows, is what, if anything, that might mean for the ultimate result. We can start by saying that the Top 3 have been imperfect in different ways, and the levels of concern for each should vary.

“I do feel that has an impact on my movement a little bit in terms of the speed,” Djokovic said of his knee. “It’s not yet there where I want it to be. Kind of late on the balls that I’m normally not late on.”

“I do feel that has an impact on my movement a little bit in terms of the speed,” Djokovic said of his knee. “It’s not yet there where I want it to be. Kind of late on the balls that I’m normally not late on.”

Advertising

I’ll start with Djokovic, who is a round behind the other two at the moment, and who will face his first seeded opponent, No. 15 Holger Rune, on Monday.

So far, there have been two themes to Djokovic’s matches. (1) He has edged two of his opponents, Jacob Fearnley and Alexei Popyrin, in close fourth sets. (2) He has found a way to win without his customary dexterity.

“I did just enough to win there in the fourth,” he said, with some relief, after beating Fearnley. “Was a bit lucky to really get out of trouble.”

The same thing happened to Djokovic in his next match, against Popyrin, which he would win in a fourth-set tiebreaker. In both of these contests, Djokovic looked more reactive than proactive, and struggled to keep up his famous defenses.

“I do feel that has an impact on my movement a little bit in terms of the speed,” he said of his knee. “It’s not yet there where I want it to be. Kind of late on the balls that I’m normally not late on.”

Can Rune, or someone else, make him pay for that lateness? We’ve seen Djokovic manage his way through majors with nagging injuries before. As much as his ailments may bother him physically, they can also help him mentally. When you play with an injury, the expectations are lower, so you can swing a little more freely. Djokovic, like all Grand Slam champs, also has a knack for rising to the level of his opponent. He’ll know exactly how he good he has to be to beat Rune.

“That’s the part which I guess comes with matches,” Djokovic said earlier this week. “So the longer I stay in the tournament, I think the better the chances that my movement will improve.”

On the plus side for Djokovic, he won’t have to beat both Alcaraz and Sinner to win the tournament. On the minus side, he may have to go through Rune and Alexander Zverev, two guys who have beaten him in big matches in the past.

“I know that the other guy has to play at a really high level of intensity in the five set if he wants to beat me,” Alcaraz says.

“I know that the other guy has to play at a really high level of intensity in the five set if he wants to beat me,” Alcaraz says.

Advertising

While Djokovic has struggled with his movement, Alcaraz has struggled, even more mightily, with his consistency and his feel for the ball—his “level,” as he says.

On Friday, down two sets to one to Frances Tiafoe, his shots were misfiring and his demeanor was flat. He almost looked resigned to defeat. But he clung to his serve in the fourth, forced a tiebreaker, and revved it up from there. On Sunday, up two sets to love against Ugo Humbert, Alcaraz’s level plummeted again in the third, and he had to scramble to make it out of the fourth alive.

“The up and downs is not about the opponent,” Alcaraz says. “It’s just about yourself….If I’m not feeling well or if I’m not playing at a high level, you have to stay strong mentally just to keep fighting and try to get the good rhythm.”

If the opponent doesn’t have a lot to do with it, the surface surely does. Alcaraz is the Wimbledon champion, but grass courts give an aggressive, risk-taking opponent a better chance of keeping him pinned down—Tiafoe and Humbert both grabbed control of the rallies. Tommy Paul, his quarterfinal opponent, will also be able to do that, and so will Sinner in the semis.

But Alcaraz’s erratic play comes with an upside: Now he knows that, by hanging in and holding onto his serve, he can get past a bad patch of play, and turn a grim situation around in a hurry. He also won’t forget that he’s 12-1 in fifth sets.

“I know that the other guy has to play at a really high level of intensity in the five set if he wants to beat me,” Alcaraz says.

“Obviously you need courage to go for certain shots. I’m pushing myself to do that,” says Sinner.

“Obviously you need courage to go for certain shots. I’m pushing myself to do that,” says Sinner.

Advertising

Relatively speaking, Sinner has had the least trouble of the Top 3. He has won his last two matches in straight sets. In his fourth-round win over Ben Shelton on Sunday, he was sharp to start, and hung tough to win the third-set tiebreaker 11-9.

But as he says, he has had his lulls, too, even when the scores have been one-sided. Against Shelton, he lost the feel on his forehand in the third set, for no apparent reason, other than that he may have gotten tight trying to close out the match. Sinner ended up with more errors (29) than winners (28), which is unusual in a straight-set win on grass.

Like Alcaraz, though, Sinner didn’t panic. By now, after so many victories this season and last, he must have a bedrock confidence that he’ll find a way in the end. On Sunday it was his return which made the difference in the tiebreaker.

“I feel like at important moments in each game, in each match, I try to put full effort,” Sinner says. “I feel like this sometimes can make the difference. Obviously you need courage to go for certain shots. I’m pushing myself to do that.”

Of the Top 3, Sinner may have played the best, steadiest, fittest tennis so far. But he may also have the most difficult road to the title. Next he’ll face Daniil Medvedev, an opponent he needed five sets to beat in the Australian Open final. If he makes it through that, he may get Alcaraz in the semis and Djokovic, or Zverev, in the final.

That’s a gauntlet, but I picked Sinner to win the title to start, and I’ll stick with him now.

As the Italian likes to say after each win: “Let’s see what’s coming next.”