Jessica Pegula strikes the right balance to unravel Aryna Sabalenka, top Bacalar Group in Cancun

After losing four straight matches and eight straight sets to Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula was understandably unsure of how to play the world No. 1.

“It’s tough against her,” Pegula said of Sabalenka, one of the tour’s most powerful, but at times erratic, ball-strikers. “You don’t know whether to put the ball in the court, she could hit a winner, she could miss it.”

But if she was uncertain of what to do against Sabalenka in their round-robin match at the WTA Finals on Tuesday, Pegula never showed it. Her shots looked very assured, and her demeanor very calm, virtually from start to finish.

That began with her serve. Pegula opened the match with two service winners and a love hold, and kept firing first serves from there. She would finish with five aces, make 66 percent of her first deliveries, and win 66 percent of those points.

When her serve wasn’t winning points outright for her, it was setting the tone for the rallies. Where most players try to follow it with a forehand, Pegula used her backhand as her finishing weapon. Instead of sinking back and letting Sabalenka hit or miss, Pegula moved up to the baseline, sent her backhand wide crosscourt, and followed that with winning backhands down the line. In the opening games, she found just the right balance of aggression, control, and margin for error, and never lost it.

That extended to her return games. Pegula didn’t look overwhelmed by Sabalenka’s flat first serve or high-kicking second; at 2-2, she surprised her with a faster-than-normal return to break. By the middle of the first set, Pegula’s calm accuracy began to make Sabalenka gradually come unglued.

Unable to find a hole in the American’s defenses, she overhit and sailed her shots progressively wider of the mark. In turn, her facial expressions gradually grew more desperate: Stared at the ball after some misses, rolled her eyes after others, and gazed at the sky in exasperation after blowing especially easy shots.

In both sets, Pegula jumped out a two-break lead, before Sabalenka finally relaxed and began to play something like her normal self. In the first, she came back from 5-2 to 5-4; in the second, she came back from 1-5 to 3-5, and saved eight match points. But both times, it was too little, too late. Serving at 5-3, Sabalenka hit three winners on three match points, but she could never follow those shots up, or put two straight points together.

Finally, on match point No. 9, she shanked a backhand sky high, and well out. Pegula, who fist-pumped in relief, had her third win over a world No. 1 this season, and her first over Sabalenka in her last five tries. She’s 2-0 in Cancun so far.

Asked what tactics she ultimately decided on tonight, Pegula said, “I tried to play a little smarter.” You could see it in every well-considered, solidly-struck shot. The fans appreciated it.

“I’m still undefeated in Mexico,” Pegula said, sounding slightly surprised. “That’s awesome.”