During the first week of Wimbledon, TENNIS Magazine senior editor Jon Levey will be on the grounds at the All England Club. He'll be sending dispatches to me, and I'll answer the best I can watching good old American TV.
With the draws out, here's Jon first post, from an office two doors down from me.
Below, Jon has proposed doing a two-man "suicide pool" with me. Anyone who wants to join please have your men's and women's first-round entries in the comments section below by Sunday evening. As Jon explains, you must pick one player per round in each draw who will survive that round, but you can't use that player again. (In other words, to win last year, you needed to have Roger Federer and Venus Williams available as your picks for the finals.)
Steve,
Well? What do you think? Borg and Sampras must have conspired to make Federer’s draw because it’s a minefield. If he wins his 4th straight he’ll have earned it – and a week or three of holiday (trying to sound British already). A first-rounder against Gasquet, followed most likely by Henman, and then pick your poison with Ancic, Monfils, Berdych, and Djokovic. Even Robo serving machines Arthurs and Karlovic are lurking in that quarter. Just gruesome. I wonder if the 2-to-5 betting odds for Federer to win the title have shifted at all toward the field.
If any player can take this kind of challenge in stride, though, it’s definitely Federer. He’ll respond to questions about it with something like, “Everyone has to win seven matches and you don’t know who you’re going to play until you face him. Still, not sure you’ve noticed, but I have won 41 straight matches on grass. They should be worried about me, too.” A little bit a of humility sprinkled with a subtle touch of well-earned conceit, that the Federer style.
On the other side, Nadal seems to have a great opportunity to have his first taste of Wimbledon success. If things play to form, he’ll have a very intriguing match-up in the third round with old man Agassi. I was very happy to see Agassi get a few cushy opponents so he has a chance to hopefully play himself into the tournament. In the other quarter of that half, Roddick and Hewitt look destined for a dust-up, but each with have a few occasions to stumble along the way.
The women’s draw will probably play more to form. That’s just the way it is in that half of the tennis world. I think Sharapova has a nice path to the semis—which she may need, considering her recent loss to Jamea Jackson—and, even though she’s so unpredictable, Venus may very well meet her there again. Still, it’s hard to bet against Henin-Hardenne. When the biggest knock you can come up with about a player is that she’s too intense, that’s a fault I can live with.
Speaking of betting, how about you and I put a friendly little wager on the Championships? No money on the table, just office pride. The winner gets a spanking new TENNIS Magazine trucker’s cap. Let’s do a “suicide pool” for the men’s and women’s singles draws.
Here’s how it works: you have to pick one winner for each round of play, but once you select that player you’re not allowed to use him or her again. So, for example, if you have Roddick winning in the first round, you can’t choose him for the rest of the fortnight (where else can your legitimately use that word other than Wimbledon?). What’s tricky about doing this in a tennis tournament is that you have to save the players you think will be around late in the draw. If you get to the semis and you’ve already used all four players, you lose. Interested?
I’ll serve first. For my men’s winner in the first round I’m going with “The Beast,” Max Mirnyi over Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo. Mirnyi has got the big serve-and-volley game and doubles specialists sometimes fair well at Wimbledon. And on grass it’s usually a good move to bet against any guy with a hyphen in his last name. As far as I can tell, over the past two years Ramirez-Hidalgo has played only one tournament not on a clay surface.
It’s more a head-scratcher for me on the women’s side. Can’t say that I’ve seen Francesca Schiavone play much, but I know even less about her wildcard opponent, Britain’s Melanie South. So I’m going to take the 11th seeded Schiavone and cross my fingers that I don’t bomb out early.
Who you got?
JL
Jon,
Seeing the draws for the first time is always a highlight of a Slam for me. It's kind of like a perfect world in front of your eyes, before the injuries, upsets, and big-serving tournament-wreckers wreak their havoc. There's potential for anything at this point—including, as you say, something as fun as Nadal vs. Agassi. Of course, there's also potential for Pashanski vs. Bogdanovic instead. But we won't think like that just yet.
The men's draw is an eye-opener right from the top: Federer vs. Gasquet. The Frenchman is good on grass (he won Nottingham last year) and we all know he has a win over Federer. Before today, I thought Federer might go through the event without dropping a set this year—he just seems like such a mortal lock when he gets on grass. But if he can do that against this section of the draw—Henman, Berdych, Haas, Ancic, Nalbandian, Monfils, D-Joke, hell, even Goldie is lurking!—it would be an even greater achievement than winning the French would have been. 2-5 must be coming down to 1-2, at least. Still, it must be said: Federer will be a serious favorite against any of these guys individually.
Other items of note on the men's side: Nalbandian has a tricky one against huge-serving doubles-specialist bumpkin Wesley Moodie; Blake and Mathieu could be trading monster forehands in the third round; if Safin can get past Rusekski in the first round, he may get Gonzalez again in the third (watch out if you're in the stands for that one, Jon); Massu and Murray is a tough one to pick as a first-rounder, with Murray being so unpredictable in general (you'd have to think he'll be ready for this one, though); Roddick and Nadal have nice lower-half draws, but this may be Ljubicic's best chance yet to reach a Slam final; U.S. trainwreck alert: Fish vs. Ginepri in the first round.
The women? The top two seeds, Mauresmo and Clijsters, look pretty safe to start. I wonder if Groenefeld can do anything against Clijsters in the fourth round? Kuznetsova and Vaidisova may meet again, but each seems ripe for a post-French letdown. Hingis and Henin-Hardenne have to feel good about their chances of playing each other in the quarters. I'd say Sharapova has to feel the same about getting all the way to the semis; the biggest name she might face is Dementieva, who was slumping this spring.
The biggest question for me on the women's side is whether Henin-Hardenne is finally ready to go all the way. She just won the French, beat Clijsters on grass today, and seems to be the best WTA player when she's healthy. She's made a final here and went three sets, but she never matched up with the stronger Williamses in the past. And last year she went down in the first round. Her size has really hurt her on grass, and it's still unclear whether her health is strong enough for her to win two majors back to back. But with her clipped strokes and all-court talent, I would have to think she's about due.
What do you think?
OK, you're on for the suicide pool. Nice choice on Schiavone. The women are tough: I think I'm going to start with Karolina Sprem on the women's side (she plays a British wildcard) and our old friend Marcos Baghdatis, who also plays a Brit wildcard, Alan Mackin. Bags can't blow that one, can he?
Anyone else, feel free to join us. Make your picks before each round in the comments box below (you're on the honor system). With the TENNIS trucker's hat, I'll throw in a SMASH Magazine T-shirt for the winner (assuming there is one). Teenage girls go crazy for...I mean, those shirts are pretty cool.
Jon, have a good flight to London and say hello to all of our fellow press pariahs for me. I know you'll miss listening to Fowler, Mary Joe, BG, and the rest of the usual suspects over here.
Steve