The pro-tennis schedule is just one illogical quirk after another. We start with a Slam, go six weeks with nothing, then play two identical big events over the course of three weeks. Brad Gilbert—remember him?—has said that he thinks winning the Indian Wells-Key Biscayne double is more difficult than winning a major, and it hasn’t been done all that often (with the predictable exception of Roger Federer, who did it twice in a row in 2005-’06). As individual tournaments, these are two of the very best on the calendar and prove that two genders are better than one. But for players and TV viewers, there’s a sameness to them that robs each of some of its status and uniqueness. Pete Bodo has suggested in the past that Key Biscayne become a Har-Tru tournament. This would give it a Pan American flavor and differentiate it from Indian Wells, while utilizing a recognizably U.S.-based surface (which, since the demise of the U.S. summer clay circuit, isn’t used for any big men’s tournaments these days). Not a bad idea, in my opinion.
That’s obviously not what we’re dealing with in 2008. What we are dealing are slow hard courts, high humidity, and draws that look like these. The men’s side is packed again, and the women’s, despite Maria Sharapova’s withdrawal, is stronger than the one that showed for Indian Wells. There are storylines to follow on both sides, as Novak Djokovic continues his assault on the Federer-Nadal hegemony, while IW winner Ana Ivanovic tries to navigate through a field featuring Justine Henin, the Williams sisters, and Anna Chakvetadze.
The Women
First Quarter
The last time we saw Henin she was beaten by Schiavone in Dubai; before that she had won in Antwerp but gotten waxed in a 6-0 second set by Sharapova in Australia. Now the world No. 1 will try to regain the momentum she had at the end of last season. She doesn’t have the easiest section in which to do it. The third round could bring the hard-working Maria Kirilenko, the fourth Agnes Szavay, and the quarters, as usual, defending champion Serena Williams (can we agree that draw-fixing might be in order here, to keep these two apart a little longer?) To reach Henin, Williams will need to get past Patty Schnyder, who she recently beat in straight sets in Bangalore.
Semifinalist: Serena Williams
Second Quarter
Kuznetsova is the top seed, followed by Venus Williams. Intermittently dangerous names like Radwanska, Peer, and Bartoli are floating between them, but I wouldn’t bet on any of them to put together a long run of excellence. Peer did knock off Kuz in three sets here last year, but she hasn’t been at her best lately. As for Kuz vs. Venus, they’re 3-3 lifetime, with Williams winning their last meeting, at Wimbledon in 2007. She’ll be more rested than the Russian, who just reached the final of IW. That could make a difference by the time they play in the deep humidity of South Florida.
Semifinalist: Venus Williams
Third Quarter
Anna Chakvetadze returns to the tour as the No. 5 seed and has been slotted across from No. 4 Jelena Jankovic. Chakvetadze has a slightly deeper minefield to traverse: Mirza, Schiavone, and Dementieva, compared to Petrova, Knapp, and, um, Safarova (?) for Jankovic. The Russian holds a surprising 6-3 edge over the Serb and should be fresher after skipping IW.
Semifinalist: Anna Chakvetadze
Fourth Quarter
The final section of the women’s draw includes a couple of potentially intriguing match-ups. Ivanovic could face Davenport in the third round, while a semi-sinking Vaidisova is in the same half as a semi-rising Hantuchova, though the Czech would have to get past Zvonareva to make that happen. Ivanovic is on a roll and still hungry, and there’s no reason to think she won’t keep it going at least until the semis.
Semifinalist: Ana Ivanovic
**Semis: Serena Williams d. Venus Williams; Chakvetadze d. Ivanovic
Final: S. Williams d. Chakvetadze**
