I didn’t realize what a schedule there was for today in Key Biscayne, but it may end up being one of the best days of the tennis year. As the pros take the courts down there, I’ll make a few fast predictions.
Na Li vs. Anna Chakvetadze
These are two big-backhand-hitting up-and-comers in the women’s game. Li has the size and all-around strength, Chakvetadze the crisp timing. They both like to show off their shot-making skills, and are 1-1 head-to-head (the Russian won their match on hard courts). I’ve liked Li’s grounded attitude so far this year, which has helped her finish matches, and got her through a three-setter with Clijsters last round.
Pick: Na Li
Maria Sharapova vs. Serena Williams
The Serena scraped past a tough Lucie Safarova, and I think she’ll do the same in two tight sets against Sharapova today. Maria’s serving problems and errors don’t seem to be going anywhere soon—who’s this new hitting partner she has, anyway?; is it all his fault?—and Serena won’t want anyone to forget her Australian Open win. Still, I’m not predicting that she’ll go out and hammer winners at will, the way she did Down Under. The conditions in Miami look too rough for that.
Pick: Serena Williams
Andy Murray vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
This should be interesting. Mathieu has been playing pretty well, the slow courts work well with his big wind-ups, and he even came through in the clutch to beat Fernando Gonzalez here. He’ll also be able to push Murray around a bit, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes the first set. But despite the Gonzo match, I’m still not ready to go with the Frenchman in the moment of truth. Murray has been learning how to win these kinds of matches by defusing the other guy’s power, particularly with the slice that skids into his opponent’s two-handed backhand. This will be another test, but I think he’ll pass.
Pick: Andy Murray
Roger Federer vs. Guillermo Cañas
This works out well for Federer, who gets a shot at revenge right away, before the sting of his defeat in Indian Wells can fade. It would be a shock if Cañas came out and played the same kind of flawless tennis he did in that match; there’s got to be something in his head that says this is just too much to ask. Still, Federer doesn’t like the wind, he hasn’t looked totally focused in Key Biscayne so far, and Cañas does the one thing you must do against Federer—get everything back and make Federer hit extra balls.
Pick: Roger Federer (I’ll try a score on this one: 6-3, 7-6)
Rafael Nadal vs. Juan Del Potro
Well, it didn’t take long for this one to happen. Del Potro has a shot because of his ability to dictate with his forehand, his attacking mentality, and a backhand that’s solid enough to withstand Nadal’s inevitable lefty forehand barrage. But it won’t be enough. Nadal is always fired up to play a young guy, and Del Potro is one of the few who are younger; it’s at night, and the Spaniard likes an occasion; and his defensive skills will force Del Potro to go for too much too often.
Pick: Rafael Nadal 7-5, 6-4