Roger Federer and Guillermo Cañas should get together every week. They're good drama. I thought Federer played better yesterday than he did in Indian Wells, but he looked a little flat-footed and unsure of his positioning, especially in the first set—both of those are signs of nerves.
Credit the Argentine for not just retrieving, but getting pace on the ball even when he was stretched wide. His hard-hit scrambling forehands were what kept Federer from finishing dozens of points. Cañas' serve must also be deceptive—the fast, straight-up-and-down motion doesn't give much away. So much so that Sire Jacket whiffed on match point! Did he think the ball going into the net for a split-second?
After the match, I thought about how ridiculous it is to make predictions in tennis, particularly at the beginning of the season. What "expert," in their right mind, would have said, "I think Guillermo Cañas will beat Roger Federer on hard courts at both Indian Wells and Key Biscayne"? Not me, anyway.
With that in mind, here are my expert predictions for today, which features three more marquee match-ups.
Andy Murray vs. Andy Roddick
These two are getting to know each other. This will be their sixth match-up in the space of little over a year. Thus far, Murray has the edge 3-2, but Roddick won their last meeting, indoors, in Memphis. He also comes in with the added motivation of wanting to beat not just the scrawny upstart Murray, but his coach, Brad Gilbert, who once helped Roddick to the U.S. Open title.
At the start of the tournament, I picked Roddick to reach the semifinals, so I’ll stick with him here, perhaps against my better judgment. The slow surface—Federer and Cañas both said it’s actually slower than Indian Wells, which I didn’t think was possible—will give Murray more time, both to return serve and hit lethal on-the-run forehands. But I think Roddick’s desire to put his earlier losses to Murray (as well as last week’s debacle against Rafael Nadal) behind him will focus him. Of course, Roddick will also have to hit consistently from the baseline and use ground stroke combinations to get Murray out of position. He did that pretty well against Ferrer yesterday. He’ll need to be even better at it today. Looking forward to this one.
Pick: Andy Roddick
Serena Williams vs. Nicole Vaidisova
La Williams at night, one day after a blowout win over the No. 1 seed, against a teenager? A no-brainer, right? Well, not exactly. This year Serena has reserved her wrath pretty much exclusively for Maria Sharapova. Vaidisova played her close in the semifinals in Australia, and she won’t have the same serving troubles Sharapova did yesterday (unless the disease migrates from Russia to the Czech Republic). The kid also won’t be intimidated physically; she brings her own size and strength to the table. She just doesn’t quite have as much of it as Serena.
Pick: Serena Williams
Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic
These guys are also getting to know each other a little better this spring—Nadal beat Djoko in the final in Indian Wells. The Spaniard’s been racing out of the gate lately–he won a 6-0 first set over Juan Del Potro yesterday and blistered Djokovic 6-2 in the first in IW. The Serb was nervous for that one, and will likely be better prepared the whether the storm. The problem is, even if he does, Nadal will just bring more of them. This surface is tailor-made for him to grind down opponents, and his serve is looking stronger each week. The question will be whether Djoko can take the ball on the rise and wrest control of rallies. It will require high-risk tennis from him; I think he’ll have streaks of success, but you need more than streaks against Nadal.
Pick: Rafael Nadal