The tennis tours are endlessly strange, aren’t they? We’ve got a schedule that spreads over 11 months, travels to every known city on the globe, and is played on a variety of surfaces. But the two biggest non-Slam dual-gender events of the year are contested in back-to-back weeks on similarly slow U.S. hard courts. For most of the year, pro tennis is utterly haphazard. In March, it climbs into one narrow box—where’s the middle ground?
No complaining, though, because like last week in Indian Wells, we have all the best male players in the world gathered into a 96 draw. We can’t ask for more than that, can we? Here’s how the draw breaks down in Key Biscayne (notice I'm boycotting the word "bracket" this time; just in case you care).
First Quarter
Roger Federer maintains his customary pole position at the top of the draw. Are we as sure of his ultimate victory as we were before he was dropped last week by Guillermo Cañas? It’s amazing how quickly doubt can creep in—dude wins 41 in a row, loses one, and I’m thinking, “This guy Federer is vulnerable now!” Of course, that means he’ll do whatever it takes to make any seeds of doubt die quickly.
Federer’s section is not loaded, but it’s tricky. First he’ll get the winner of Sam Querrey and Igor Andreev, neither one a pushover. Then he might be looking at Nicolas Almagro, who nearly beat him on clay last year. After that, he could potentially face either Cañas, Tim Henman, Juan Carlos Ferrero, or Richard Gasquet, all of whom own wins over Sire Jacket. In the bottom of the section, Tommy Haas, who's played Federer tough, may be waiting.
Semifinalist: Roger Federer
Second Quarter
The excitement level cools a bit here, in the inevitable land of Davydenko, Nalbandian, Ljubicic, and Berdych, four great players who can throw in a clunker at any time—Berdych in particular has been a disappointment this season. Interesting matchups? Umm, Korolev-Nalby in the third round could be telling, anyway. Beyond that, I’ll take Ljubicic, who made the final here in 2006 and played a solid match last week, losing in two tiebreakers to Andy Roddick.
Semifinalist: Ivan Ljubicic
Third Quarter
The fun returns. First we could see the improving Andy Murray try to break down the veteran grinder Lleyton Hewitt. Murray won their only meeting, at San Jose last year, in a third-set tiebreaker. The winner may face Fernando Gonzalez. The bottom features a possible shootout between Roddick and Dmitry Tursunov, though the Russian has been injured, and he looked a little disinterested in Indian Wells. Brutal first round: Argentina’s Juan Monaco vs. Spain’s David Ferrer. Don’t get there early for that one—but get there eventually.
Semifinalist: Andy Roddick
Fourth Quarter
This section may hold the most in store for the core fan. At the top is Blake-Safin (if they can manage to win their first rounds—not a sure thing these days), with the winner possibly getting a crack at the newest member of the Top 10, Novak Djokovic. Below you have two hairy talents, Juan Del Potro vs. Marcos Baghdatis, playing early, as well as Rafael Nadal and Mikhail Youzhny heading toward another showdown. I think Nadal will be looking forward to it a little more eagerly, and will continue his IW roll. Of course, last week, I thought the exact opposite would happen!
Semifinalist: Rafael Nadal