Kudermetova vs. Paolini, Rybakina vs. Swiatek: Cincinnati women's semifinal previews

Jasmine Paolini vs. Veronika Kudermetova

Many days ago now, in what feels like another tennis lifetime, No. 2 Coco Gauff and No. 4 Jessica Pegula were projected to play in this semifinal. Instead, we’ll get something more surprising and less crowd-pleasing: No. 9 Paolini vs. No. 36 Kudermetova.

In her four matches, Paolini has beaten two Grand Slam champions, Gauff and Barbora Krejcikova. Kudermetova hasn’t faced anyone with that kind of pedigree, but as an unseeded player, she has played one more round, and she has survived two close matches with quality opponents, Clara Tauson and Belinda Bencic.

Paolini and Kudermetova have played four times. The Russian is 3-1, and 3-0 on hard courts. Their last meeting came in Cincinnati in 2021, and Kudermetova won 6-3, 6-2. The caveat in all of that, of course, is the number 2021. These two haven’t met in four years. During that time, Paolini has passed Kudermetova in the rankings, and now sits 27 spots ahead of her.

Any player in the semifinals of a WTA 1000 has clearly rounded into form, and it’s true for these two. Kudermetova has won her last two matches in straight sets, and Paolini slowly found a ball-striking groove over three sets against Gauff. By the end, she was close to her vintage 2024 self.

All surfaces combined, Paolini is the better player, and she’s also more experienced in late-round matches at major events. But the fast surface should favor the taller and flatter-hitting Kudermetova.

There’s no obvious reason to pick either woman: Kudermetova has the head-to-head and the surface, Paolini has the higher talent ceiling. I’ll go with the latter. Winner: Paolini

Iga Świątek vs. Elena Rybakina

“We know each other pretty well,” Rybakina says of her rivalry with Swiatek.

By now, that’s close to being an understatement. These two have played nine times since 2021, and three times already in 2025. Swiatek is 5-4 overall, and 3-0 this season. In their most recent meeting, at Roland Garros, Swiatek lost the first set 6-1 and looked out of it in the second, before coming all the way back to win 7-5 in the third. The victory didn’t catapult her to the title in Paris, but it was a positive step that did help turn her season around, a turn that eventually led to her first Wimbledon win.

“It’s always super intense against Elena,” Swiatek says. “And you don’t get a lot of chances, because she serves well. She moves really well, especially with how tall she is, and she covers the court well. So you really need to, like, be there to use your chances.”

According to Swiatek, the edge she has to have against Rybakina helps her up her game. It happened at Roland Garros, as well as at the United Cup in January.

“I think it was like one of my best matches this season, and I could feel like I needed to do a step up, you know, in the first set, especially to break her,” Swiatek said. “I remember, I was like, OK, that’s not enough.”

👉 Read More: The key to Elena Rybakina’s Cincinnati win over Aryna Sabalenka? “The serve of course”

Judging by Rybakina’s form in her quarterfinal, Swiatek may have to “do a step up” again. In beating top seed Aryna Sabalenka 6-1, 6-4 in 75 minutes, Rybakina played what may have been her best match of 2025. She said the conditions in Cincy—high heat, fast courts, light balls—allow her to “keep it simple” and not have to get too clever with her service placement. Against Sabalenka, she hit 11 aces and wasn’t broken. Everything else flowed from there.

“I found my angles and, especially in the important moments, I was able to bring a good serve,” Rybakina said. “And then as soon as I had the chance, I was trying to stay aggressive, even if I know the balls are flying, it’s so difficult to control here, so I was just trying to go for it.”

Rybakina vows she’ll do the same against Swiatek. Their Sunday semifinal will likely be played in equally steamy conditions. Which means the match may rest on the bigger-serving Rybakina’s racquet. Can she go big, without losing control, the way she did on Friday?

With the courts in her favor, and her longtime coach, Stefano Vukov, back on the sidelines with her, this may be her best chance to get a win over Swiatek in 2025. Winner: Rybakina