Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek, Madrid

Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Sabalenka's French Open future

For the second clay-court tournament in a row, we’re treated to a final between world No. 1 Iga Swiatek and world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka. The first final was in Stuttgart, where Swiatek earned a 6-3, 6-4 victory. But Sabalenka should like her chances at the Mutua Madrid Open, given the conditions. That’s why we’re backing the 25-year-old—to win a set.

Swiatek is at her best on slower surfaces, much like the clay in Stuttgart. But in Madrid's altitude, the balls zip through the air, and that should make Sabalenka a bit more dangerous two weeks ago. If Swiatek has one weakness in her game, it’s that she can occasionally be outmuscled in faster conditions. And Sabalenka is arguably the most powerful player on the WTA Tour.

If Sabalenka can just be accurate with her serve—sometimes a big if—she’s going to have a good chance of making this a very competitive match. Before her loss to Swiatek in Stuttgart, Sabalenka earned a 6-2, 2-6, 6-1 win over the Pole at the WTA Finals in Fort Worth. And just before that, Sabalenka forced a third set against Swiatek in a 6-3, 1-6, 4-6 loss in the US Open semifinals.

Sabalenka also happens to be in a great headspace right now. After her dominant win over an in-form Maria Sakkari in the semifinals, Sabalenka noted that she wants the challenge of facing Swiatek in the final. That’s not something you generally say if you’re not confident in your ability to beat an opponent.

It's also worth mentioning that Swiatek hasn’t exactly been perfect in Madrid thus far. Sure, the Polish superstar has won four of her five matches in straight sets, but her performance against Ekaterina Alexandrova left a lot to be desired. She only won that match 6-4, 6-7 (3), 6-3, and Alexandrova’s ability to strike the ball and stay aggressive gave her some trouble. Sabalenka is only going to be a tougher version of that, so Swiatek shouldn’t be coasting to a victory here.

Will Swiatek win this match outright? Probably. After all, she’s a -380 favorite to win. But the value in this match lies in taking the set spread, one way or another. And it just feels a little more likely that Sabalenka loses in three sets than Swiatek wins in straights.

Line Call: Sabalenka +1.5 Sets (+110)