Betting Central

Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Elena Rybakina vs. Jessica Pegula, Miami

Pegula might be the third-ranked player in the world, but Rybakina feels like she's in a clearly higher tier.

Published Mar 30, 2023

Advertising

Tennis Channel Live Match Preview: Rybakina vs. Pegula

On Thursday, Elena Rybakina will take on Jessica Pegula with a spot in the Miami Open final on the line. These two met in South Beach last year, and Pegula earned a 6-3, 6-4 win in just an hour and 22 minutes. Pegula is 2-0 in her head-to-head against Rybakina, and she’s also the third-ranked player in the world. However, it’s the world No. 7 that is a significant favorite to win this match.

While Pegula is a tremendous player, it’s just hard to imagine Rybakina not finding a way to win this in her current form. The 23-year-old Indian Wells champion is a more dangerous player than Pegula in pretty much every facet of the game, and that’s especially true when playing in these conditions. Miami's courts are very fast and that favors the player that hits with more power. Rybakina’s hard, flat shots are going to be tough for Pegula to track down, especially with the American having just played a grueling, late-night match against Anastasia Potapova in the quarterfinals.

Advertising

Pegula is 2-0 in her head-to-head against Rybakina, and she’s also the third-ranked player in the world. However, it’s the world No. 10 that is a significant favorite to win this match.

Rybakina is also the much better server between these two, with a hold percentage of 81.9. She’s one of the few players on the WTA Tour that you can rely on to pick up easy points with her serve, whether that’s with an ace or just a spot serve that sets up an easy winner. That’s a crucial skill set to have on a surface like this, and it’s something that Pegula will be missing. Against Potapova, Pegula had to work extremely hard on her own serve. That won’t fly against a player like Rybakina.

It's also worth mentioning that Rybakina’s ranking doesn’t accurately reflect her talent. Being the seventh-ranked player in the world is nothing to sneeze at, but she didn’t receive ranking points for her win at Wimbledon last year. Now, we’re going to see Rybakina go for the Sunshine Double, which is something only Iga Swiatek, Victoria Azarenka, Kim Clijsters and Steffi Graf have accomplished.

As long as Rybakina just plays her game, there’s not much Pegula will be able to do to throw her off, despite her talent. The only chance the American has is if Rybakina is hitting a lot of unforced errors or is sluggish as a mover—the latter of which hasn’t been as big of a problem for her recently.

Line Call: Rybakina -2.5 Games (-130)

Advertising