Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Madison Keys vs. Barbora Krejcikova, Miami

The last, and only, time Madison Keys and Barbora Krejcikova met was at the 2022 Australian Open, where the American came away with a 6-3, 6-2 win. Keys went on to make a run all the way to the semifinals. But things have changed quite a bit since last January. Keys, who had something of a bounce-back run in Melbourne in 2022, hasn't made many deep runs at big events since. Meanwhile, Krejcikova won a title in Dubai at the end of February, defeating Irina-Camelia Begu, Daria Kasatkina, Petra Kvitova, Aryna Sabalenka, Jessica Pegula and Iga Swiatek.

Krejcikova is up to 13th in the WTA rankings, but she’s fourth when it comes to Universal Tennis Rating. And that second number seems spot on, as it feels like Swiatek, Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and Krejcikova are the Top 4 players in the world now. Those are the four players that are consistently going deep in tournaments, and they’re the ones that most players probably fear seeing in their sections of the draw.

With that in mind, we don’t think this will go all that well for the 21st-ranked Keys.

Krejcikova is tied for the eighth-highest break percentage on the WTA Tour since the start of the 2023 season; she is doing so 40.3% of the time. With that part of her game looking so impressive right now, it wouldn’t be shocking if Krejcikova completely neutralizes Keys’ greatest weapon: her serve. When Keys is at her absolute best, it’s the serve that is leading the way for her. However, her hold percentage hasn’t been above 75.0% in three years.

Keys also happens to be a player that relies heavily on her tremendous power from the baseline. But Krejcikova is the type of player that loves facing big hitters, as she redirects pace with the best of them. Look for her to really frustrate Keys with her ability to play extra balls, and hit cleanly from both sides of the court. Keys lives in Florida and should love playing in this tournament, but that joy will quickly go away if Krejcikova is moving her around the court and taking away her ability to hit winners. And Keys is just 8-11 in the Miami Open in her career, so this event hasn’t been as kind to her as you might think.

Overall, it’s just hard to see this match not turning into one-way traffic. Keys can sometimes drown herself in a sea of unforced errors, and that’s not a trait you want to have against one of the best defensive players on the planet. Look for Krejcikova to win at least one lopsided set in this one, which will allow her to cover the 3.5-game spread—even on the off chance Keys forces a third set.

Bet: Krejcikova -3.5 Games (-110)