Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: Marcos Giron vs. Frances Tiafoe, Indian Wells

Tennis fans and bettors should be excited about the matchup they’ll see under the lights on Friday: Marcos Giron vs. Frances Tiafoe, in an All-American second-round battle at Indian Wells. Both players are probably a little disappointed about how things went in Acapulco last week, as Giron suffered a first-round defeat to Michael Mmoh, and Tiafoe just didn’t look competitive in a quarterfinal loss to Taylor Fritz. But a nice showing at the BNP Paribas Open is would go a long way towards washing the bad tastes out of their mouths.

When looking at this match, it’s hard not to view Tiafoe as the player that is more likely to win, at least on paper. The 25-year-old is the No. 16 player in the world and has achieved a lot more than Giron throughout his career, even though he’s four years younger. However, the conditions in the desert can’t be ignored, and that’s why we’ll be playing Giron to at least win one set in the match.

While this is a hard-court tournament, the court is so slow that it really plays more like clay. Indian Wells should really be analyzed exactly like a clay-court event, and I'm not the only analyst or handicapper to suggest this. And if you do that, Tiafoe is no longer a borderline Top 15 player. In his career, Big Foe is just 21-30 when playing on the dirt, which isn’t too surprising given his ability to hit flat, powerful shots. Those aren’t as effective on a court with a slower, higher bounce than normal, so Giron should have no trouble tracking down Tiafoe’s shots and redirecting the pace.

Giron also happens to have the advantage of having already played a match in this tournament, as a lot of the top-seeded players get first-round byes at Indian Wells. And Giron happened to ace that first conditions test, earning a 6-3, 7-5 win over Aleksandar Kovacevic. He looked very comfortable playing on these courts, and he’ll now try to do everything in his power to make Tiafoe uncomfortable early in their encounter.

This isn’t going to be a match for the faint of heart, as both players play extremely tough and there should be a lot of momentum swings throughout. But we like the idea of backing Giron in a match he doesn’t have to win outright. All he needs to do is win a set against Tiafoe, who isn’t in great form right now. And the odds you’re getting on this play are hard to pass up.

Bet: Giron To Win A Set (-130)