Line Calls, presented by FanDuel Sportsbook: Roberto Carballes Baena vs. David Goffin, Marrakech

Goffin won when these two met at the Miami Open, but it'll be a completely different ballgame on clay.

Published Apr 08, 2022

Linecalls 4.7.22 Final

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World No. 74 David Goffin is looking to beat world No. 79 Roberto Carballes Baena for the second time in a span of just about two weeks, as the two will meet at the Grand Prix Hassan II in Marrakech on Friday. Goffin earned a 6-2, 6-3 win when they met at the Miami Open on March 23, but he only finds himself as a small favorite in this one.

The reason that the Belgian isn’t a bigger favorite in this match is because they’ll be playing on clay this time around. The Miami Open conditions certainly didn’t make for a straightforward hard-court match, but they were still favorable for Goffin. Now, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if Carballes Baena completely flips the script.

Carballes Baena won in straight sets when these two met on clay in 2014.

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The 29-year-old Spaniard is one of the true clay-court specialists left on the ATP Tour; he is already 11-6 when playing on the dirt this season. Goffin, meanwhile, has played just two matches on clay all year, and one of those was an absolute battle against Pablo Andujar in his first match in Marrakech. Goffin needed two hours and 49 minutes to get through that one, earning a 5-7, 7-6 (4), 6-3 win. With that said, the 31-year-old hasn’t played enough on this surface to feel confident about his chances, and he should also be pretty tired coming into this contest.

Overall, it’s just a little surprising to see Goffin as the favorite. That match in Miami really shouldn’t be all that important as a comp, as Carballes Baena is just a completely different player on clay. It has also been such a long time since we have seen Goffin playing any sort of consistent tennis, so there’s no guarantee he’ll look anything like the player we saw against Andujar.

Not only is Carballes Baena a good value on the moneyline, but it really seems like the wrong player is favored here. With that in mind, you should also keep an eye out for the alternate game spreads. The Spaniard is likely going to be getting 1.5 or 2.5 games in this match, but you should be able to find him with some great odds if he's laying 1.5 or 2.5. We think he has a pretty good chance of doing that, worthy of a half-unit or so.

Line Call: Carballes Baena To Win (+104)

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