We’ve seen a lot of different things in the 26 matches that Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have played over the last seven years. But we had never, to this degree at least, seen one where Federer completely escaped Nadal’s grasp and soared above him, the way he has against so many other opponents for so long.
In 2007, Federer beat Nadal at this tournament convincingly, 6-4, 6-1, but even that one felt competitive much of the way. What was the difference in Federer's even more lopsided 6-3, 6-0 win today? It wasn’t the first set, which Federer won by the same score that he won the first set over Nadal here last year. Judging by the way Nadal struggled, both physically and with his game, through his win over Mardy Fish two days ago, and how he generally struggles at this event, it was hardly a surprise that he lost the first one today.
The key came when Nadal served in the first game of the second set. He came out more aggressively, hitting his most assured inside-out forehand up to that point to go up 30-0. It seemed that he was ready to settle in, and when Federer missed a makeable backhand return at 30-30, it seemed that Federer might be ready to let him. But that’s not how it played out this time. Federer hung in to reach break point, and Tennis Channel commentator Jimmy Arias correctly recognized it as a “huge point.” In the past, Federer has been stymied at break point by Nadal, unable to get over that hump, get the lead he loves, and run with it. This time he broke free. At deuce, Federer whirled over a crosscourt backhand for a winner. At break point he ran wide and rifled a forehand down the line well out of Nadal’s reach.
It was all Federer from there. Full-flight ensued, with almost nothing standing in his way: His serves, returns, forehands, and even the backhand got bigger and more confident as the set progressed and Nadal offered less and less resistance—Rafa ended up winning just nine points total in the second set, and he hit just four winners for the match compared to Federer's 28. From the start, Nadal’s shots, especially his serve and backhand, lacked depth and penetration, and even his usually fearsome forehand was easily tracked down. He seemed stuck out there, unable to move forward, unable to do anything but offer up sitter serves and ground strokes for Federer to pound.
Of course, Federer had something to do with that. Even in the closer first set, he played well. He made 81 percent of his first serves, and he won without taking big risks in his return games. Rather than attack Nadal’s serve and come forward all the time, he was just as happy to sit back and start the point with a heavy ball that moved Nadal off the baseline. Federer worked the rallies to his advantage—his forehand to Rafa's backhand—from there, and went after his own backhand when he could. He held at 5-3 with a strong inside-out forehand for 40-15, then rolled a crosscourt forehand winner for the set.
What’s the significance of No. 26 between these two? For now, Federer is the first to clinch a spot in the semis, and Nadal will have to get past Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in his next match to do the same. In the bigger scheme, we’ve seen Nadal put two whippings on Federer, in the 2008 French Open final and earlier this year at Key Biscayne. Now we know what it looks like when Federer puts one on him.
—Steve Tignor