Looking Toward London

You can feel it, right? The tension, the gravity, the anticipation: Wimbledon is the one again. Thirty, 20, maybe even 10 years ago, you probably wouldn't have felt that way. Despite the reverence that the best players maintained for the event, All England’s patchy, outdated surface made it feel a little like a one-off, a prestigious sideshow, rather than the unofficial world championship that it had been for most of the sport’s history.

What a difference a new brand of grass can make. Now that the bounces are truer, the lawns stay greener, and even the dirtiest of dirtballers can succeed there, Wimbledon represents the peak of the season again. The U.S. Open, which through the 80s and 90s had become the truer gauge of the sport’s pecking order, now feels like it arrives a little late to the pro tennis party. The players—Federer, Nadal, Sharapova, the Williamses—revere Wimbledon more than ever.

So the cream rises to the occasion. On the women’s side, the WTA’s two best athletes, and sisters, have played the last two finals and won the last three titles. The same has been true on the men’s side, where Federer and Nadal have played each other in three of the last four finals. Rumors of their demises aside, those two men come into this event reigning as supremely as ever. They’ve split the first two majors of 2010 and traded the No. 1 and 2 rankings. Will the tiebreaker happen on Centre Court? It couldn’t come in a better spot. London is calling.

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The Women

First Quarter

Maria Sharapova, the 16th seed and 2004 champion, who is starting to resemble her former self, is the perfect sleeper pick on the women’s side. And I would pick her to win the whole thing, if I knew she wouldn’t have to face one of the Williamses along the way. Unfortunately for her, she’s got Serena in the round of 16. Or is that fortunate for her? If you’re going to play one of the sisters at Wimbledon, you might as well do it early.

Is there a chance that Serena might not get to Maria? There are good players in her vicinity. She has Larcher de Brito, a solid hitter beneath the shrieks, in the first round, and, potentially, Andrea Petkovic in the second. Post Sharapova, Serena might see Li Na, Svetlana Kuznetsova, or Wimbledon adept Aggie Radwanska in the quarters. The Williams sisters will lose a step one of these days, but I’m not going to predict that it will happen in the next two weeks.

Semifinalist: Serena Williams

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Second Quarter

Sam Stosur, Caroline Wozniacki, Victoria Azarenka, Zheng Jie: Those are the four names that stick out here. Is Stosur due for a letdown? Well, yeah. The player most likely to take advantage of it on grass is former semifinalist Zheng, who loves this stuff. On the other side, Wozniacki and Azarenka are scheduled to play in the round of 16. They’ve both played a lot of tennis this year and have already been through their share of ups and downs. Azarenka, after a total flame out in Paris, is suddenly back on the upswing; she beat Kim Clijsters this week. In other words, this is an anything can happen area of the draw, ripe for a surprise.

First-round match to watch: Azarenka vs. a returning Mirjana Lucic

Semifinalist: Zheng

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Third Quarter

While Wimbledon in its seemingly infinite wisdom reserves the right to tweak the seedings the way they see fit, they didn’t do anything significant on the women’s side this year. Which means that Justine Henin, the 17th seed, might face Clijsters, the 8th seed, in the round of 16—good for fans, not so good for the two of them. But there’s more to this section than the Belgians. Jelena Jankovic opens against Laura Robson, Yanina Wickmayer gets a chance to avenge a loss to American teenager Alison Riske, Nadia Petrova will try to bring her Williams-beating form across the channel, and Melanie Oudin will attempt to defend her fourth-round run here from last year. Lots to watch, and a tough section to predict. How will Henin bounce back after her backhand breakdown in Paris? How will Kim be playing after her layoff? Can a steady Jankovic sneak under the radar, the way she did at the French? It will be tough. She has Zvonareva, Wickmayer, Alona Bondarenko, and the woman who beat her last year, Oudin, on her side. I'll take Henin over Clijsters (it's a Slam, after all), and over the rest as well.

Semifinalist: Henin

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Fourth Quarter

Who is this we see at the top of a quarter? Francesca Schiavone? Talk about being ripe for a letdown. She made the quarters here last year, but she’s lost her only match since her Parisian miracle, in Eastbourne. Another quarterfinal appearance would be accomplishment enough, considering that she’ll likely have to play Venus Williams if she does make it there. Can Venus do what she always does? Survive an early-round scare and elevate her game once she’s settled into Centre Court during the second week? Safina, Kleybanova, Szavay, Kudryavtseva, Peer, Ivanovic will be the women Venus will probably face to do it. It’s going to be tough to take this tournament from Venus and Serena, isn’t it?

First-round match to watch: Peer vs. Ivanovic

Semifinalist: Venus Williams

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Semifinals: S. Williams d. Zheng; V. Williams d. Henin

Final: S. Williams d. V. Williams

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* !RnThe Men*

First Quarter

Roger Federer couldn’t have asked for too much more coming to Wimbledon. He’s been made the first seed, and he’s got a draw that he has to like. The next-highest seed is Davydenko, who's coming back from a long layoff and has never done much at Wimbledon. The closest seeds to Federer are Robredo, Lopez, and Melzer. The one threat he faces in this section, at least on paper, is Berdych, whom he wouldn’t get until the quarters. Is there a sleeper in the house? Feliciano Lopez, perhaps? He beat Nadal at Queens. Janko Tipsarevic, perhaps? Two years ago, he beat Roddick here and almost beat Federer in Melbourne. They could see each other again in the fourth round. All in all, it’s hard not to see a new semifinal streak beginning in a couple of weeks.

Semifinalist: Federer

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Second Quarter

Andy Roddick also can’t be too displeased with his treatment thus far in London. He was bumped up to the No. 5 seed, and has landed in the same quarter as Novak Djokovic, a man he has beaten on several occasions. If there’s an early fly in Roddick's ointment, it could come in the form of Philipp Kohlschreiber, the German shot-maker who took him out in Melbourne a couple of years ago, and who is not averse to grass. Roddick might face him in the third round. After that, he could get Marin Cilic, who beat Andy in Melbourne but hasn’t done a whole lot since.

As for Djokovic, he has a few small minefields to avoid. Olivier Rochus in the first round, Taylor Dent in the second. Lleyton Hewitt or Gael Monfils in the round of 16. Hewitt, in particular, is a threat for the semis, and—maybe, who knows, why not—beyond. The 2002 champ likes Wimbledon, obviously, and he just beat Federer for the first time in 16 matches. He must be feeling good. If he gets to Roddick, we should get another special match from them.

Semifinalist: Hewitt

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Third Quarter

United Kingdom, here is your chance. Andy Murray has a lot going for him in this draw. He's on the opposite side of Federer. He can ease into the tournament; Gilles Simon is the first seed he would face, and either Sam Querrey or JC Ferrero are the biggest threats to him before the quarters. And on the other side, the top two seeds are Verdasco and Tsonga, neither of whom are very good at the majors.

True, Murray hasn’t been playing well, and in his current form it’s conceivable that he could lose an early shocker. But last year he was buoyed by the energy of the crowds at Wimbledon, until the semis, when the prospect of a final with Federer, in front of the Queen, got to him just enough to let the other Andy through the door. The Queen is coming early this time. We’ll see if Murray notices.

Semifinalist: Murray

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Fourth Quarter

Moving from first seed to second supposedly has no effect on the draw, but don’t tell that to Nadal right now. The heavyweights have sunk to the bottom with him. To reach the semis, he may have to go through Blake (who has beaten him three times), Gulbis (who has been injured but took a set from him on clay in Rome), Isner (who took a set from him in Indian Wells), Youzhny, not his favorite opponent, and Soderling—we know all about their history. Is Nadal up to that task? Is he in 2008-type form, where no one really bothered him until the third set of the final? No, he’s not playing like that; he may never play like that again.

But who is going to beat him? Isner may not be fast enough. Gulbis has trouble sustaining for three sets. And Soderling is still not a sure thing on any given day, even though I do like his draw. A Rafa-Sod quarter could be another nasty little classic.

Semifinalist: Nadal

Semifinals: Hewitt d. Federer; Nadal d. Murray

Final: Nadal d. Hewitt

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I won't be at Wimbledon this time, but we've got Tom Perrotta heading over tomorrow. Look for his stuff starting this weekend, and for Pete Bodo later in the tournament. I'm all over the TV report from the couch. There are worse fates than Wimbledon in HD.