Lurker Amnesty Day

Howdy, Tribe. Regular comment posters, along with Steggy and I, often wish we could lure more of our legions of lurkers out into the daylight of the Comments section. As this is the absolute, total, no ifs-ands-or-buts, ultimate, final, definitively conclusive week of the tennis year, we'd love to see some of you stand up and make the time-honored confession that begins with, "Hi, my name is Ishmael, and I'm a lurker!"

In fact, we'll make the job easier for you by posing a simple question on which we'd like to hear your opinion:

Who's going to win the Davis Cup, Russia, with its talented, roguish, heartbreaking, mercurial, blogging, frequently choke-prone crew of chick magnets, or Argentina, with its talented, roguish, heartbreaking, mercurial. . . well you know the rest.

The indefatigable Steggy has spent a little time crunching numbers, and it looks to me like they add up to a really intriguing battle:

Davydenko vs. Chela (0-5, 3 Clay, 2 Hard)
Safin vs. Nalbandian (6-2, 2 Syn, 2 Hard, 2 Clay; Nalbandian barely won
their last matchup in Madrid, so Safin will want a bit of revenge)

Davydenko vs. Nalbandian (2-4, 3 Clay, 1 Syn)
Safin vs. Chela (3-1, 1 Syn, 1 Hard, 1 Clay)

The doubles match is Tursunov/Youznhy vs. Calleri/Nalbandian. No H2H
exists.

She goes on to speculate:

I think most folks are going in, thinking that Russia will just roll over Argentina and as a result there doesn't seem to be much interest.  However, the statistics don't bear out the "roll over" theory. Given how many times Argentina is putting lazy Nalbandian on court, I'd give the edge to Russia, despite Youzhny's recent ankle injury.

So there you have it: the morning line from TW. I agree with Steggy and see Russia winning based on this formula: Home court advantage + a big star accustomed to high pressure = Russia wins.

I think Safin goes big, and Argentina ends up a bridesmaid once again.

You can use this post to talk amongst  yourselves or call the match as you see fit.