Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka: Where to Watch, Indian Wells Preview

Where to Watch

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The winner of this match will face Iga Swiatek or Mirra Andreeva in the final.

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BNP Paribas Open Match Preview

Steve Tignor: It can take many months, or even years, for two players to give us a rematch of a classic final. Sabalenka and Swiatek, to name two top-level WTA rivals, hardly ever seem to play outside of Madrid. Sabalenka and Keys, by contrast, will follow their down-to-the-wire Australian Open title match from January with a much-hoped-for Indian Wells semifinal on Friday.

Keys, 30, won 7-5 in the third set in Melbourne to claim her first major title after a dozen years and more than 40 tries. But her fast start to 2025 goes beyond that. She’s 18-1 this season, has won two titles in three events, and is on a 16-match win streak.

After skipping all of February, Keys showed some rust against Elise Mertens and Donna Vekic this week. Against the former, she took an extra set to close it out; against the latter, she had to come back from a set down, and escape a second-set tiebreaker 9-7, to survive.

By Thursday, though, Keys was dialed back in. She faced an in-form Belinda Bencic, and made quick work of her, 6-1, 6-1. Afterward, the 15-year veteran admitted that this is the most confident she has ever felt.

“I think the reality of winning as many matches as I have this early in a season hasn’t ever really happened for me, so I think there is definitely a lot of just kind of confidence from all those wins under your belt,” Keys said.

“I think it kind of gives me the confidence to, in really tight situations, just continue to go for kind of whatever I want to.”

The question now is whether she’ll have that same kind of freedom and belief against the No. 1 player in the world. While Keys is 1-0 against Sabalenka in 2025, she’s 2-4 overall, and she had lost their three previous meetings. Before Melbourne, it seemed as if Sabalenka was a kind of updated, upgraded version of Keys, able to hit as hard, but with more spin and margin.

As for Sabalenka’s current form, it’s a little hard to gauge. She was 1-2 in Doha and Dubai, and while she hasn’t dropped a set in four matches in Indian Wells, she also hasn’t faced anyone in the Top 20. On the one hand, her quarterfinal win over Liudmila Samsonova was patchy at best; on the other, she had to manage her way through tough, windy conditions.

It’s also hard to say who the slower courts will favor. Keys had never made the semifinals in Indian Wells before this year, but Sabalenka has never won the title here. If Keys is clicking from the ground, and maintains her current confidence, she may have the higher ceiling. But if neither are at their best, Sabalenka, with her heavier spin, is probably less prone to having a disastrous performance.

Sabalenka doesn’t like when a crowd is 100 percent against her, and it affected her in her US Open loss to Coco Gauff in 2023. On Thursday, she begged the Indian Wells fans to give her at least a little love against their countrywoman Keys.

Still, Sabalenka sounds ready.

“It’s only coming to my mind as motivation to get back that revenge,” she said of trying to turn around her Melbourne loss. “It was a tough match. She played great there. I didn’t play my best, and I’m really happy that tomorrow I will have opportunity to get this revenge back.” Winner: Keys—Steve Tignor

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