Reigning Madrid champ Andrey Rublev gets walkover from Gael Monfils; 2024 finalist Auger-Aliassime out

We knew one of these men would be here. We were pretty sure the other wouldn’t. Coric is seeded 17th, but coming to Madrid he had lost in the first round at his last four events, and his ranking is still largely floating on his win at the Masters 1000 in Cincinnati from last August. But he got it together in time to win four matches and beat two seeds, Hubert Hurkacz and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, at the Caja Magica. His win over Davidovich Fokina, in a third-set tiebreaker, was among the best of the week.

The next question, of course, is whether any of that is evidence that Coric can take his game up two or three more notches, which is what he’ll need to do to challenge the colossally favored Alcaraz. Coric won’t want to try matching forehands with the Spaniard; it’s the weaker of the Croat’s wings. But he’s consistent and still quick, so he should be able to make Alcaraz hit a lot of balls to beat him. His best, and maybe only, hope is that Alcaraz will make errors instead of hitting winners. Friday is Alcaraz’s birthday, which may make him a little over-amped early on. But it will also make the crowd even louder in his favor. Winner: Alcaraz

Alcaraz is 4-1 in semifinals this season (went on to triumph at Buenos Aires, Indian Wells and Barcelona and finished runner-up in Rio de Janeiro).

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Aslan Karatsev vs. Jan-Lennard Struff

What a difference a week and a half makes. On April 25, Struff and Karatsev met in the qualifiers in Madrid, and Karatsev won 6-4, 6-2. But after a withdrawal, Struff entered the main draw anyway. Now, 10 days later, they’ll meet again, with a trip to their first Masters 1000 final on the line. Their bodies may be a little weary—particularly Karatsev, who has played seven matches to get here—but their games should be grooved.

The Russian and the German have each recorded a Top 5 win this week: Karatsev beat Daniil Medvedev in the round of 16, while Struff beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in three sets in the quarterfinals on Thursday night. While Karatsev is probably the steadier player from day to day, Struff played like a man who has built up a good head of attacking steam in his win over Tsitsipas. I could see him riding that momentum, and his powerful serve and forehand, into the biggest final of his life. Winner: Struff

Can Struff reverse the event's earlier qualifying result against Karatsev?