The blue court will be a championship crossroads when Victoria Azarenka and Serena Williams square off for the first time on clay in a blockbuster Madrid final on Sunday. World No. 1 Azarenka owns the best record in women’s tennis; former No. 1 Williams is the best player of this generation and both are playing for their first Madrid title.
Both arrive in the final in good form. The top-seeded Azarenka beat three former French Open champions — Svetlana Kuznetsova, Ana Ivanovic and reigning Roland Garros champion Li Na — before sweeping Agnieszka Radwanska, 6-2, 6-4, to reach her sixth final in seven tournaments and raise her record to 34-2 this season. The ninth-seeded Williams knocked off former top-ranked players Caroline Wozniacki and Maria Sharapova in succession before defeating 105th-ranked Czech qualifier Lucie Hradecka, 7-6 (5), 6-0, to improve her immaculate clay-court record to 12-0 and reach her second straight clay-court final. The Charleston champion will rise to at least No. 6 when the new rankings are released on Monday and Azarenka knows digits don’t indicate the danger a domineering Williams poses — her ability to dictate off both serve and return can take the racquet right out of an opponent’s hand as she can transform the standard shot dialogue of a rally into a monologue where she has the last word.
"She's one of the best players in the world and one of the toughest opponents to play against," Azarenka said of Williams. "We've played a lot of matches and I was young — I was just coming on the tour, but I was always competitive with her. So it's going to be a different story. We had a very good match at the U.S. Open last year, so I can take some positive things out of that one."
Traditionally, clay has not exactly been a comfort zone for either woman: Azarenka’s lone clay-court title in 11 career championships came on the red clay of Marbella last April, while Williams has won four of her 40 career titles on clay, including the 2002 Roland Garros. Aggressive baseliners have been in imposing amid Madrid’s higher altitude and slippery surface, which creates complications for counter-punchers trying to retrieve and recover on clay. The outcome of this match may well depend on which women is consistently taking the first strike in rallies as both are highly skilled at creating closure once they have control of the point.
"Victoria has been so consistent," Williams said of Azarenka. "She is so consistent, so amazing and just so nearly perfect. I am going into the final with nothing to lose. She's the top-ranked player and she's going in there with everything to win."
Their head-to-head history features blow-outs, shoot outs and a titanic comeback. Serena has won six of seven meetings with Vika, including a 6-1, 7-6 (5) U.S. Open third-round win last September. Azarenka’s lone win was a resounding one as she crushed a hobbled Serena, 6-3, 6-1, in the 2009 Miami final. But the Belarusian had Williams in major trouble in the 2010 Australian Open quarterfinals, outplaying the top seed in building a one-set, 4-0 lead before Williams began to find her range and slam her serve into the corners. Serena cracked 57 winners, including 17 aces, to score one of the most memorable comebacks of her career, 4-6, 7-6 (4), 6-2.
"I wasn't playing my best, especially in the first two sets. I definitely think I played well in the third,” Williams said after that match. "I was down the whole match from the first point until the end. So I was surprised. I was definitely shocked to win."
You can make a compelling case for each woman to prevail tomorrow. The consistent depth and accuracy of Azarenka’s drives have enabled her to deconstruct the defenses of even elite players: the Belarusian is 11-2 vs. Top 10 opponents this year, she’s surrendered only one set this week and she’s playing with much greater confidence and clarity than she did in losing to Williams in Flushing Meadows. The Azarenka two-handed backhand is one of the most lethal shots in women’s tennis and the final could produce some brilliant backhand exchanges as Williams’ two-hander is typically her soundest groundstroke. Vika has won 10 of her last 11 matches in Madrid and should relish the pace she’ll see from Serena. The Australian Open champion has been a formidable front runner this year — she’s undefeated when winning the opening set — and if Williams stumbles out of the blocks slowly, as she did vs. Wozniacki, Azarenka will be very tough to beat.
Azarenka has been the more consistent player, but Williams is the more explosive one. While Azenka possesses a potent return game, I regard Serena’s serve as the best in women’s tennis history so if it comes down to tie breakers that could benefit the bigger server. Though Serena is eight years old than Vika, she’s quicker around the court, she’s undefeated on clay this season and though the dirt has been her least successful surface when Williams is confident playing on clay sometimes broadens her shot selection in that she can back opponents up behind the baseline with her deep drives then hit the short, sharp angle backhand to work the width of the court.
If Azarenka can reproduce the level of tennis she showed in capturing four consecutive titles to open the season, she can win. Williams is one of the best big-match players I've seen, she's more explosive from more areas of the court and if she plays with the patience she's displayed in her last two matches, she should prevail.
The Pick: Serena Williams