Madrid Open Preview: Nadal made his clay move—can Murray and Djokovic?

The stakes get higher each week now, as the clay season swings into its first of two back-to-back mandatory Masters 1000 events, in Madrid. So far this spring, Rafael Nadal has made his expected surge, with his 10th title runs in Monte Carlo and Barcelona. Is it time for the world’s No. 1 and 2, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, to counterattack, and show us why they reached the French Open final last year?

Madrid may be Murray’s favorite clay-court event. He won it in 2015, lost to Djokovic in the final last year, and beat the hometown favorite Nadal both times. This year he returns as the world No. 1, but he hasn’t done much so far in 2017 to merit that title. Was his semifinal appearance in Barcelona, which ended with a close loss to Dominic Thiem, enough to finally give him some momentum? We’ll find out if Murray meets Thiem again in the quarters in Madrid.

Also here: Grigor Dimitrov, Lucas Pouille

First-round match to watch: Richard Gasquet vs. Mischa Zverev

Potential third-round match to watch: Murray vs. Pouille

Semifinalist: Murray

First question: With Roger Federer not in the draw, were we destined to have a quarter featuring Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic as the top seeds? Either way, like it or not, it’s here.

Second question: Should the fact that Wawrinka is just 13-10 in Madrid, and has made it past the third round just once, lead us to think he’s heading for an early exit again? Or should it lead us to think, knowing Stan as we do, that he’s due to win the whole thing? To his credit, Wawrinka reached the final here in 2013, and with his clay-court skills, he really should do better here than he has shown. This year Wawrinka will start against either Pablo Carreño Busta or Benoit Paire. The Spaniard has had a good year, but he’s 0-3 against the Swiss.

Also here: Jack Sock, Tomas Berdych

First-round match to watch: Alexander Zverev vs. Fernando Verdasco

Semifinalist: Berdych

Since the Caja Magica opened in 2009, Nadal has won the tournament three times and reached the final three other times. Which means that, when you compare that record to his records everywhere else on clay, Madrid qualifies as a tournament he doesn’t like. Once he looks at his draw for 2017, he might like it a little less.

Rafa starts against either Fabio Fognini, his sometime nemesis, or Joao Sousa, who took him to a third set on these courts last year. After that, Nadal could face Nick Kyrgios in the round of 16, and either Milos Raonic or David Goffin in the quarters. Of course, is Rafa plays the way he has been playing, he’ll win anyway.

First-round match to watch: Goffin vs. Karen Khachanov

Potential second-round match to watch: Kyrgios vs. Bernard Tomic

Potential third-round match to watch: Kyrgios vs. Nadal

Semifinalist: Nadal

Djokovic made waves on Friday when he announced that he was parting ways with longtime coach and friend Marian Vajda, as well as the rest of his traveling staff. “I’ll be alone on tour for a while,” Djokovic said. He hasn’t had a great year, but the move was still a stunner. From the start of his career, Djokovic has been closely tied to the professional support group in his player’s box. It will, first of all, be interesting to see how he plays and acts without one. Djokovic said he needed a “spark,” and change can be good, but he’ll have to defend his Madrid title while he’s still getting used to this one. He’ll play his first match against either Nicolas Almagro or Tommy Robredo, and could see Gael Monfils after that.

Also here: Kei Nishikori, who reached the Madrid final in 2014, and the semis the last two years.

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Semifinals: Murray d. Berdych; Nadal d. Djokovic

Final: Nadal d. Murray