Madrid Women's Preview: Destined for another Top 2 final between Swiatek and Sabalenka?

It’s time to take the WTA’s collective temperature heading into Roland Garros. Yes, we’ve been watching the women on clay—the green kind and the red kind—for a few weeks now. Yes, we’ve had a clash between No. 1 and 2, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka. Unlike the men, though, the women haven’t gathered en masse for a 1000-level event this spring.

Two names of note, Belinda Bencic and defending champion Ons Jabeur, will be absent due to injuries. Otherwise, we’ll get a look at 96 of the tour’s best, and most of the Top 20, over the next two weeks. Call it a dry run—at altitude—for Paris. Here’s a look ahead at what we might find out. One thing to note: Madrid was a bloodbath for seeds last year.

First Quarter

Iga Swiatek has conquered most of the clay world, but not Madrid. She skipped the event last year after winning Stuttgart, and lost in the third round to Ash Barty in 2021. If there’s a version of red clay she doesn’t like, it’s possible she’ll find it here. She thrives on slower courts and higher bounces, and she’ll get fewer of them in Madrid than elsewhere.

Not that Iga can’t adjust. She’s nearly as good on hard courts as she is on dirt, and she’s coming off a successful title defense, and a win over Sabalenka, in Stuttgart. Her early draw here doesn’t look menacing; she could start against Emma Raducanu, and may face either Zheng Qinwen or Ekaterina Alexandrova in the fourth round. But the quarters may throw up a significant obstacle in Elena Rybakina or Barbora Krejcikova. Each has a win over Swiatek, and a WTA 1000-level title, in 2023.

• Also here: Bianca Andreescu, who may play Krejickova in the third round
• Potential second-round match to watch: Swiatek vs. Raducanu

Semifinalist: Swiatek

Second Quarter

Jessica Pegula is No. 3 in the world, and is defending her runner-up finish in Madrid from a year ago. Put those two things together, and it feels like she has something to prove here. The American has had a good year so far, making a final and three semifinals, but has it lived up to pre-season expectations? After 2022, it looked like little stood between her and big titles like Madrid. Instead, the major trophies have gone to bigger hitters like Sabalenka, Rybakina, and Petra Kvitova.

But hope springs eternal in tennis, and Pegula is likely pleased with her draw. Her closest competition, seed-wise, in this section is Daria Kasatkina, Veronika Kudermetova, and two-time Madrid finalist Victoria Azarenka.

• Wild card: Elina Svitolina. The Ukrainian will play Aliaksandra Sasnovich of Belarus in the first round.
• Potential second-round match to watch: Azarenka vs. Alycia Parks

Semifinalist: Pegula

Third Quarter

With Jabeur’s withdrawal, No. 6 seed Coco Gauff gets to lead a quarter of her own. But that doesn’t mean she has a clear path to the semifinals. Last year’s Roland Garros runner-up hasn’t had much success in Madrid in the past; her strong defense has worked better on slower clay. She also has had some disappointing results of late. One piece of good news for Coco is that she won’t have to play Anastasia Potapova, who has beaten her twice this spring. Instead, the other seeds near Gauff are Paula Badosa, Donna Vekic, and Maria Sakkari. Of those three, Vekic and Badosa have had the more promising recent results.

All of which is to say that this quarter, and a trip to WTA 1000 semifinal, is up for grabs.

• Also here: Jelena Ostapenko, Amanda Anisimova

Semifinalist: Badosa

Fourth Quarter

Sabalenka headlines the bottom quarter, and she’s a fine pick to win the whole thing. She did it in 2021, and she’s a better and more reliable player now than she was then. The days of her head-scratching plunges in form seem to be behind her.

Yet there’s another heavy hitter in this section who is just as intriguing: Petra Kvitova. It may not be easy to remember now, but before the pandemic the Czech won this title three times. And even at 33, she played some of the best and most determined tennis of her career to win her first title in Miami a few weeks ago. The only question is her physical status; Kvitova pulled out of Stuttgart last week with a foot issue.

Semifinalist: Sabalenka

Semifinals: Swiatek d. Pegula; Sabalenka d. Badosa

Final: Sabalenka d. Swiatek