Big finals don’t get much tighter, or better, than Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka's melee in Madrid

After 12 days of often-unpredictable results, the Madrid women’s tournament ends the way many of us assumed it would: With a showdown between the two best players in the world. Swiatek and Sabalenka are starting to build the type of back-and-forth rivalry that has always drawn fans to the sport. Swiatek won their last meeting, in Stuttgart in April, in pretty convincing straight-set fashion. She hasn’t showed any signs of letting that momentum slow in Madrid.

“Today I felt I got the rhythm and got used to the altitude,” Swiatek said after her 6-0, 6-3 quarterfinal win over Petra Martic earlier this week. After skipping last year’s version of this tournament, the WTA’s No. 1 has been a quick study in 2023. She has dropped one set, and just five games, in her last two matches. Even top seeds don’t usually win their semifinals by scores like 6-1, 6-1, but Swiatek has made a habit of it over the past year, and she did it to Veronika Kudermetova on Thursday.

Can No. 1 do something similar to No. 2 on Saturday? Last month in Stuttgart, Swiatek beat Sabalenka 6-3, 6-4. Now she’ll face her again, in faster conditions. Sabalenka has been almost as good as Swiatek so far in Madrid, dropping one set and running away with her own semifinal, against Maria Sakkari, 6-4, 6-1.

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In a dream match-up, No. 2 meets No. 1.

Swiatek leads their head-to-head 5-2, and is generally just a little better at balancing pace and consistency, at making her risky hitting pay off, and finding a way to get her track her opponent’s best shots down. But if Swiatek is the better mover, the taller Sabalenka is the (slightly) bigger hitter, and she may be able to level the playing field on this faster court.

Two years ago, she lost to Ash Barty in the Stuttgart final, before turning that result around and beating Barty, 6-4 in the third set, in the Madrid final. Might we see something similar on Saturday? Either way, it’s appointment viewing for tennis fans. Winner: Sabalenka

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