There could be a major shake-up in the rankings the day after Indian Wells

Monday, October 18, 2021—the day after Indian Wells wraps up—could see a major shake-up in both the ATP and WTA rankings, as ranking points from eight ATP tournaments and four WTA tournaments, as well as 2020 Roland Garros points for the women if they’re still on there, will all be dropping off that day.

So who are some of the players dropping the most points? Let’s break it down…

THE EIGHT ATP EVENTS DROPPING OFF AFTER INDIAN WELLS:
~ 2019 Indian Wells (Masters 1000, champion Thiem)
~ 2019 Shanghai (Masters 1000, champion Medvedev)
~ 2020 St. Petersburg (ATP 500, champion Rublev)
~ 2019 Antwerp (ATP 250, champion Murray)
~ 2019 Moscow (ATP 250, champion Rublev)
~ 2019 Stockholm (ATP 250, champion Shapovalov)
~ 2020 Cologne-1 (ATP 250, champion Zverev)
~ 2020 Sardinia (ATP 250, champion Djere)

While this swath of tournaments dropping off will affect almost every player in the upper echelon of the ATP rankings, there are a few key storylines to look out for.

The battle for No. 1: It seemed like Daniil Medvedev was closing in on Novak Djokovic for the No. 1 ranking after he won his first Grand Slam title at the US Open, but the No. 2-ranked Russian may be the most affected by this—he’s dropping 1,025 points, which includes 1,000 for winning Shanghai in 2019. With Djokovic only dropping 203 points, the gap between No. 1 and No. 2 could grow to almost 2,000 points (though Medvedev can obviously earn 1,000 points again by winning Indian Wells).

No. 10 Ruud coming for No. 9 Federer, No. 8 Thiem: Casper Ruud is the only player in the Top 10 not dropping any points, and with Roger Federer dropping 480 points (2019 Indian Wells final, 2019 Shanghai quarterfinals) and Dominic Thiem dropping 680 points (2019 Indian Wells title, 2019 Shanghai quarterfinals), Ruud is guaranteed to pass Federer, and could pass Thiem too. Federer could very well get bumped out of the Top 10 in two weeks—No. 11 Felix Auger-Aliassime and No. 12 Hubert Hurkacz are just a handful of points behind him, with a few more within striking distance, too.

THE FOUR (PLUS) WTA EVENTS DROPPING OFF AFTER INDIAN WELLS:
~ 2019 Moscow (WTA 500, champion Bencic)
~ 2019 Luxembourg (WTA 250, champion Ostapenko)
~ 2019 Linz (WTA 250, champion Gauff)
~ 2019 Tianjin (WTA 250, champion Peterson)
~ PLUS: 2021 Roland Garros points replacing any 2020 Roland Garros points

While a slew of players will certainly drop points from the regular WTA events, the two biggest drops may come from the 2021 Roland Garros points being switched in for 2020 Roland Garros points—players who did better at the rescheduled Roland Garros last fall were allowed to keep those points on their ranking for a full 52 weeks before whatever their result was in 2021 got switched in. And with that…

Kenin to fall out of Top 10: Sofia Kenin did very well on the terre battue this year, reaching the fourth round, but when those points replace her finals points from last year, the American No. 1 will fall from No. 8 to at least No. 13, and possibly even further depending on what happens at Indian Wells, where she's not playing.

Swiatek in danger of falling out of Top 10 (but maybe not): Like Kenin, Iga Swiatek did very well at Roland Garros this year, reaching the quarterfinals—but when her champion’s points from 52 weeks ago are replaced by those quarterfinal points, she could fall from No. 4 to No. 11 or lower. But unlike Kenin, Swiatek is playing Indian Wells, and if she wins, she could come out of this ranked as high as No. 6.

It’s also worth noting that 2019 Indian Wells points for the women won’t drop off until November 8th (so Bianca Andreescu's 1,000 points from winning the WTA 1000 event in 2019 will stay on her ranking for another few weeks after this year's event).

There are a lot of moving parts to the upcoming October 18th rankings, and as Indian Wells plays out, watch this space for all of the big ranking news that could be coming.