*Ed. Note: Peter Bodo is on vacation until August 16th. In his place, we proudly present a series of guest commentary.
*When I piped up a few days ago claiming to be a fairly knowledgeable Marat Safin fan, being asked to write up an entry for TW on Marat's chances at the US Open was the last thing I expected. To tell you the truth, it completely freaked me out.
I was intrigued at the prospect of having my musings tacked to the door of Peter Bodo's House -- front and center for all to see -- rather than being in the living room and speaking among friends. But I thought about it for a second and realized that, if this was a tennis tournament, I had received a Betty Crocker draw. Write about Marat? Could I have it any easier?
My biggest challenge was to find something original to say. Safin is a compelling figure; he is talked about a great deal and his game has been analysed to death. I wouldn't want to appear repetitive or redundant. Meh! Never mind that! Since when does the TW Tribe have any aversion to beating a dead horse?
Realistically, what are El Maratski's chances at the USO? They're almost as good as Federer's and almost as bad as the last Lucky Loser to make it into the main draw. Did Punxsatawny Phil see his shadow this past Groundhog Day? If he did, Marat will flame out in the first or second round. If he didn't, then Marat will at least make the quarters. Results have always been this arbitrary with Safin, only now more than ever.
Safin has had a disappointing eighteen months following his Australian Open '05 victory. After the Aussie, his results were erratic and a chronic knee injury hampered his game. Safin toughed it out for most of the year, but ended up packing it in before the '05 USO. He didn't return to play for six months. Shortly after Marat's return in February, he reached the third round at Indian Wells and made it to the semifinals at Valencia in April.
Life on tour has been pretty grim for Safin since then. Marat hadn't advanced past the second round of any tournament until this week in DC, where he made the semifinals at Legg-Mason -- just what he needed to rebound from his slump. This quote from Marat after his Thursday win over James Blake gives hope for his immediate future:
"These kinds of matches are the most important. Playing good, playing bad, with a lot of luck. These are the ones that are going to give you the confidence."
Paradoxically, Safin's game is NOT an issue with regards to his USO prospects. Marat has an all-court power game. His hallmarks are big first and second serves and powerful groundstrokes. Safin's a classic shot-maker with a touch less variety than Federer. He is capable at net though his game's foundation is at the baseline. In short, Marat's game is perfect for Flushing Meadows.
Sorry if this disappoints, but I'm not going to write about any of the factors that aren't relevant to Marat's chances at the Open. I did scour the internet for any brand new juicy tidbits. I found nothing. This lack of gossip could be interpreted to mean that everything in Safin's off-court life is copacetic; in theory, peace and quiet should help his focus to remain on playing tennis.
As always, the biggest x-factor with Marat Safin is inside his own head. The meltdowns are legendary; Marat loses matches when his emotions get out of hand. All Safin has to do to advance is to rein 'the crazy' in. Under those hypothetical circumstances, I like his chances.
The US Open begins in 3 weeks. Safin is getting close to where he needs to be, which is great for him and not so great for his opponents. While anything could happen during Marat's next two tournaments, one thing is certain: the favorites don't want to see Marat across the net at the US Open. Metaphorically, Marat (like me) is at the door. Here's another quote from Marat following the victory over Blake:
"I'm trying. I'm not sure I'll be able to get there. But I still have hope and believe with hard work and a little bit of luck, by a little more skill and focus and consistency, I think I'll be able."
I too, think he'll be able. I like his chances enough that I won't be betting against him.
--D-Wiz