Men's Roland Garros Preview

!Rafa

by Pete Bodo

Alright, let’s get right to the point. To me, the biggest question on the eve of the French Open is whether any of the ATP pros can man up and prevent a third re-match between Mr. Roland Garros Perfect Record (Rafael Nadal) and Mr. Just Give Me One French Title, That’s All I Ask (Roger Federer).

For three years in a row, the improbable “dream final” pitting the two players battling for the no. 1 position in tennis came to pass. For three years now, Nadal has beaten Federer, and the way he crushed his Swiss rival last year, allowing Federer just four games, has led more than a few people to sigh and exclaim, Enough already, Rafa, you made your point. Let’s get Roger out of there and give somebody else a chance.

Let’s face it, another Nadal vs. Federer final and you might well rename those fellas Chrissie and Martina (and is there any doubt about which guy would be which gal?).  That’s how much  these two rivals have hogged the spotlight in Paris. On paper, it says that the two will meet agan in the final, but matches aren’t played on paper, and in some cosmic way it’s hard to imagine that Federer will be given yet another chance to beat Nadal in a Roland Garros final. It just doesn’t feel right.

If you prefer your analysis to be grounded more firmly in well-reasoned territory, try this: Given the inconsistency, impatience, and lack of confidence that Federer has shown so often this year (he didn’t win his first title until last week in Madrid; at this time in 2007, he had three, two of them at Masters Series events), whether or not he can reach the final is a more compelling question than whether or not he can find a way to beat Nadal once he arrives there.

So that’s my first – and sure to be most controversial – prediction. I just don’t see Federer making another final at Roland Garros; the use-by date on his chances has expired.  He certainly played well to win at Madrid, but in Paris three critical elements will be different:

1 - The court is bound to play much slower than the one in the Caja Magica in Madrid, partly because of the difference in altitude and partly because of weather conditions.

2 – The slower surface and five-set format will require more patience and focus than Federer has shown in recent tournaments.

3 – Nadal is not only confident, he’s extra-motivated by that loss in Madrid to Federer. That’s a great position to be in for a guy who’s never lost a match on the Roland Garros stage.

As for Nadal, correctly predicting his demise in Paris  would make any man seem more prophet than pundit. You just can’t get there from here, here being the world in which Nadal has not only won four consecutive French Opens, he’s also suffered exactly one loss during this entire clay-court season- the one he dropped to Federer in Madrid.

Okay, so let’s look at the draw, quarter-by-quarter, starting at the top, to see whose path is apt to be easy, and whose will be treacherous.

In the top, “Nadal” quarter, Nadal’s stiffest challenge is apt to come from the no. 8 seed, his pal, countryman, and Davis Cup comrade, Fernando Verdasco.  That’s if Verdasco can make his seed. It’s likely he’ll do that, because he’s made the fourth round for two years running now, and his game and confidence seem to have taken a quantum leap this year. No question that after the no. 3 seed Andy Murray (who‘s in Rafa’s half), Verdasco looms as Nadal’s main obstacle to reaching his fifth final.

Nadal opens against a qualifier, and while he has a seasoned veteran and multiple Grand Slam winner Lleyton Hewitt in a potential third-rounder, the former no. 1 has always been better on hard courts than clay. I don’t think Stanislas Wawrinka moves well enough, especially on clay and over five-sets, to pose a serious threat to Nadal, but Nadal’s quarter also contains two unpredictable players: Nicolas Kiefer and Ernests Gulbis – the latter by far the more dangerous of the two. In just two years in Paris, Gulbis had made the second round, then the quarterfinals. He’s unpredictable, but his heavy artillery is dangerous when he’s on his game.

My dark horse pick for this round is Nicolas Almagro, a lowly no. 31 seed but a quarter-finalist last year.

The “Murray” quarter is tricky, with a whole raft of intriguing and dangerous if flawed performers, starting with  Murray’s first opponent, Juan Ignacio Chela. He’s outside the top 200 now, but he’s a French Open veteran and just the kind of guy who can still paste up the big upset. That said, I still see Murray surviving Chela. One of the better first round match-ups pits Janko Tipsarevic against Albert Montanes, the winner to play a qualifier or Feliciano Lopez in order to (potentially) get at Murray.

Frenchman Gilles Simon, seeded no. 7, is in the bottom of the Murray quarter, and he could be playing US men in the first two rounds, which suggests that the no. 7 may finally make the second round of Roland Garros, something he hasn’t achieved in four attempts. On the other hand, it looks like Mr. Simon suffers from Mauresmo disease, which seems to afflict French players of either gender during Roland Garros. And with Radek Stepanek, Marin Cilic, Marat Safin, Mikhail Youzhny and Fernando Gonzalez also in this quarter, we might see some real fireworks.

I think Montanes will be the ritual “surprise semi-finalist” at the French Open.

The “Djokovic” quarter features six Frenchman, most of whom will also catch Mauresmo disease. But Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, seeded no. 9. may be an exception. Joe Willy has a big game, and he’s an unknown factor – he’s played at Roland Garros just once (a first-round loss in 2005).  Although his health is always questionable, he doesn’t seem as mentally fragile as some of his countrymen, and he could surprise everyone – including his potential fourth-round opponent, no. 5 seed Juan Martin del Potro. Both men have a lot of flesh and muscle to lug around, but the contrast in styles between the attacker, Tsonga, and defender, del Potro, would make for a very attractive battle for the right to meet Novak Djokovic in the fourth round.

Former French  Open champion and no. 1 player Juan Carlos Ferrero stands in Djokovic’s way in the second round, but other than that, it looks like pretty clear sailing for the no. 4 seed. Tommy Robredo, seeded 16 and with a Roland Garros resume littered with quarterfinal and fourth-round finishes, might not concede the quarter to Djokovic, but it’s hard to imagine Robredo withstanding the kind of bombardment Djokovic delivers with his groundstrokes.

The dark horse pick? Germany’s Philipp Kohlschreiber, seeded 29. But it’s a half-hearted pick, because Djokovic’s star seems to be on the rise.

The “Federer” quarter is at the bottom of the draw, and since I predicted that Federer would not survive to play Nadal in the final, let’s cut right to the chase. The players most likely to take him out are Paul Henri Mathieu, who’s case of Mauresmo disease seems fairly mild (he’s often gone three, four rounds), ever dangerous but unpredictable Tomas Berdych, or Gael Monfils. You’ll remember that Monfils played Federer pretty tough in the semis last year, and for 2009 the draw has Monfils playing the US’s Bobby Reynolds in the first round, then the winner between two qualifiers. The bad news for Monfils fans is that he has a bum knee and may even withdraw from the event.

Andy Roddick. the no. 6 seed, is in this quarter as well, with Eduardo Schwank of Argentina standing in his way in the third round. Schwank is a fourth-year pro who got to the third round of Roland Garros in his lone appearance (2008) in Paris. If Roddick gets by him, he’ll have his hands full with Monfils. If the French player withdraws, who knows?

Federer’s first opponent is Alberto Martin, who came within one game of being double-bageled by Federer in their last and only previous meeting, on clay in Monte Carlo in 2006. Federer mostly likely gets Jose Acasuso in the second round, then conceivably Mathieu, Berdych and Monfils – in that order. It isn’t the world’s toughest draw, but the three men I just mentioned are volatile and capable of playing brilliantly.

So my Final Four are: Nadal, Albert Montanes (who will ambush Murray). Djokovic, and Monfils or Mathieu (should Monfils pull out). Nadal and Djokovic will play the final, and the winner will be Nadal.