Miami Open Women's Preview: Bianca Andreescu, and everyone else, gets a second chance

Championship Chat: Will Elena Rybakina, Indian Wells winner, do the double in Miami?

It’s do-over time for the world’s top tennis players. If you had a bad week in Indian Wells, you have a chance to make up for it at the Miami Open. The fields are the same. The courts are similarly slow, and the conditions similarly warm—with an extra layer, or three, of humidity added on in Miami, just for fun.

There’s not even much of a break between the two tournaments, especially on the WTA side. The women’s draw was out before the Indian Wells final had finished on Sunday, and the first round at Hard Rock Stadium begins on Tuesday. So here’s a quick look at what we can expect in the second half of the Sunshine Double.

First Quarter

Is it fair to say that Iga Swiatek could use a good week to get back on track? She did make the semifinals in Indian Wells, an outstanding result for most. But once there, she gave a puzzlingly perfunctory performance in her 6-2, 6-2 semifinal loss to Elena Rybakina. That was the fourth time she had gone down to straight-set defeat this season, which is something you don’t expect to see from a player who was as day-to-day dominant as she was in 2022, and who swept Indian Wells and Miami.

Swiatek said she felt some “discomfort” in her rib in her defeat on Friday, so we’ll see if that’s a factor in Miami. She’ll start against either Claire Liu or Katerina Siniakova, and the first seed she could face is Martina Trevisan.

But there’s another name to watch in the other half of this section: Rybakina. The Indian Wells champion is playing Top 3 tennis at the moment, but, because her Wimbledon champion ranking points don’t count, she’s seeded just 10th. Rybakina has proven she can win a Slam; she’s proven she can win a WTA 1000; but do we think she can pull off the Sunshine Double? That’s kind of next level. But even if Rybakina has been erratic as a player in the past, she seems emotionally even-keel enough to put her head down and give it a shot.

First-round match to watch: Elise Mertens vs. Alycia Parks. Hopefully Parks, an American up-and-comer and already a champion in Lyon, can improve on her performance in Indian Wells, where she lost 6-1, 6-1 in the first round to Anna Kalinskaya.

Semifinalist: Rybakina

Second Quarter

Jessica Pegula may also want a do-over after Indian Wells, where she lost in an epic third-set tiebreaker to Petra Kvitova after holding four match points. The American No. 1 reached the semis in Miami last year, and she’s seeded to do the same this time around. She could start against Czech teen Linda Fruhvirtova, and possibly match up against countrywoman Danielle Collins after that.

For Coco Gauff, it’s probably a relief not to be anywhere near either Swiatek or Aryna Sabalenka in the draw; she has lost love sets to both recently, and she lost badly to Swiatek in Miami a year ago. Still, nothing is easy in a field like this. The first seed Gauff could face, Anastasia Potapova, has won a title this year, and seems poised for improvement in 2023.

Also here: Zheng Qinwen. Like Jabeur, her presumed breakout season has yet to materialize (missed Indian Wells with injury). She’s in Gauff’s half of this section, and is due to make some noise.

Semifinalist: Pegula

Third Quarter

Ons Jabeur wouldn’t so much like a do-over after Indian Wells, as she would like to push the reset button on her season entirely. After a career year in 2022, she has been slowed and sidelined by injury so far in 2023, and has watched as Sabalenka and Rybakina have leapfrogged her on the WTA totem pole. Jabeur, seeded fourth, will try again to get some momentum going, in a quarter where Maria Sakkari and Petra Kvitova are the next highest seeds.

Speaking of Sakkari, was her semifinal run in Indian Wells a sign that she has stabilized? Miami is where things began to go south for her in 2022. This time she’ll have an interesting opener, against either Bianca Andreescu or Emma Raducanu.

Also here: Donna Vekic. She has a title this season; does she have a deep run at a 1000 in her, too? She could get Kvitova in the third round.

First-round match to watch: Andreescu vs. Raducanu

Semifinalist: Andreescu

Fourth Quarter

How will Sabalenka react to her losing for just the second time this season, in the Indian Well final? One defeat doesn’t seem likely to burst her bubble or bring her momentum to a halt. But the fact that her second-serve yips returned, at the worst time possible in that match, is a cause for concern.

Sabalenka will start against either Shelby Rogers or Sloane Stephens, but her toughest competition could come from Barbora Krejcikova in the fourth round. Krejcikova and Sabalenka are 1-1 in 2023 so far, and each of those matches has gone three sets.

Also here: Caroline Garcia and Karolina Pliskova, who made the final in Miami four years ago.

First-round match to watch: Rogers vs. Stephens

Semifinalist: Sabalenka

Semifinals: Pegula d. Rybakina; Sabalenka d. Andreescu

Final: Sabalenka d. Pegula