Miami semifinal previews & picks: Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Daniil Medvedev vs. Jannik Sinner

Medvedev and Sinner have a very straightforward head-to-head history: The Russian won their first six meetings; the Italian has won their last four. A year ago, in the Miami final, Medvedev completed the last of those six victories. Starting in Beijing in October, Sinner has beaten him in three finals, most memorably at the Australian Open.

All of Sinner’s wins have been close, especially the one in Melbourne. That day Medvedev, weary after winning two straight five-set marathons, surprised Sinner by going on the attack right away. Medvedev nearly made it to the finish line, but Sinner caught him in time, coming back from two sets down to win his first major title.

Two months later, Sinner knows that Medvedev will likely have another trick or two up his sleeve.

“It’s going to be a very tactical match potentially, because I have to be ready if he starts off in a similar way as in Australia,” Sinner said. “I have to be ready and try to understand it before. Then maybe he’s gonna change a couple of things.”

“It’s going to be an interesting test for me.”

Both guys are healthy and in solid form right now. In Indian Wells, each made deep runs that were cut short by Carlos Alcaraz. In Miami, Medvedev hasn’t dropped a set, while Sinner lost one to Tallon Griekspoor, before winning the third 6-1.

Prior to last fall, Sinner wasn’t quite consistent enough to sustain his high-risk attack against Medvedev for an entire match. That changed in October, when Sinner essentially stopped missing, without having to take his foot off the gas. Since then, Medvedev hasn’t been able to beat him by getting one more ball back. It will be interesting to see, as Sinner said, what Medvedev tries against him next.

If Sinner has an advantage in power, Medvedev should have an advantage in urgency. Last year, Alcaraz was his nemesis, but he eventually found a way to beat him at the US Open. Now his nemesis is Sinner. Can he find a tactic that will get him back over the hump? Miami, where’s he the defending champ, would seem to be a good place for him to make it happen. Winner: Medvedev

Alexander Zverev vs. Grigor Dimitrov

How do you put one of the wins of your life behind you in time to compete again, in a Masters 1000 semifinal, 24 hours later? Dimitrov is figuring that out as we speak.

On Thursday in Miami, he surprised the tennis world, and a packed stadium court, by knocking off Carlos Alcaraz on a court where he has won a title before. Not only that, the 32-year-old survived a massive momentum swing in Alcaraz’s favor in the second set, one that had the pro-Carlitos crowd ready to go berserk. Instead of caving, the way he might have at various stages of his career, Dimitrov kept firing, and kept hitting his targets. It was a win that felt like a punctuation mark on the veteran’s recent rise back up the rankings.

Can he add another punctuation mark, or two, before he’s done in Miami? Unfortunately for Dimitrov, he’ll face an opponent who may be even more difficult for him to beat. Dimitrov had won his most recent match with Alcaraz, in Beijing last fall, but it has been a full decade since he has beaten Zverev. The German has won their last seven meetings, including four in 2023 alone. In those four matches, Dimitrov managed to scrape out just a single set. When they played at the US Open last summer, he lost the last two 6-1, 6-1.

Zverev has a few advantages over Dimitrov. He can win more free points with his serve. His two-handed backhand is a bigger weapon than Dimitrov’s one-hander. He hits a heavier ball from the baseline, and can do it more consistently. He also hasn’t lost a set in Miami.

We don’t know how high Dimitrov can take his game at this stage in his career; he’s still surprising us. I’d love to see him play with the same freewheeling attack, and lack of nerves, that he showed against Alcaraz. But an eighth straight Zverev win would make more sense. Winner: Zverev