Skidding retrieval marks scrawled across the red clay won't be the only streaks in Monte Carlo on Sunday. Winning streaks collide in the final as Novak Djokovic bids to win his eighth straight match against Rafael Nadal (all in finals), while the reigning champion aims to claim his eighth consecutive title in Monaco.
This is a rematch of the 2009 final, which Nadal won, 6-3, 2-6, 6-1. But times have changed. Djokovic, who following that loss trailed Nadal 12-4 in their head-to-head series, has narrowed that gap considerably, winning 10 of their last 12 matches, including straight-set sweeps in last year's Madrid and Rome finals. Now, Djokovic has displaced Nadal as world No. 1 and seeks to take another piece of the King of Clay's turf.
The second-ranked Spaniard still holds a 16-14 edge in their series, but the current dynamics of this rivalry favor the top-ranked Serbian. Djokovic is more balanced with his groundstrokes, allowing him to play the court straight up, whereas Nadal gives up ground camping out in his backhand corner to hit his favored forehand. Djokovic typically plays closer to the baseline, takes the ball earlier, and has hurt Nadal with down-the-line drives off both wings. The muscular Mallorcan has not been able to hurt Djokovic with his serve and has often had to work through draining deuce games to hold.
Considering Nadal's streak of futility against Djokovic—which includes two losses in clay finals—and the 10-month title drought he's mired in, you can't dispute that Nole is the favorite in this match. This despite the fact that Nadal has is 9-2 lifetime record against Djokovic on clay, and owns a 43-1 record in Monte Carlo. If they both play high-level tennis, I believe Djokovic's best beats Nadal's best. However, Nadal has been the more consistent player this week—he hasn't surrendered a set, while Djokovic has twice fought back from a set down. Rafa has dropped serve just twice this week, is moving well, and is showing no signs the left knee issue which forced him out of the Miami semifinals. If the swirling winds that wreaked havoc at times during the semifinals return, that may favor Nadal, who usually plays well in windy conditions and almost always finds a way to win in clay finals: The 10-time Grand Slam champion is 31-4 in ATP clay-court title matches.
One of the challenges of predicting matches is you can't determine how a player will feel physically and emotionally at crunch time. Djokovic, who has gazed skyward at times in acknowledgement of his beloved grandfather, Vladimir, who died hours before the top seed's comeback win over Alexandr Dolgopolov this week, must be emotionally depleted from grieving and competing. He's shown the ability to channel his emotions into energy in the past, but does he have enough left to wage what could be another exhausting battle with Nadal? Ultimately, I think Nadal is the fresher player, has played more consistent tennis this week, and is extremely comfortable on this court—and I think he will stop his losing slide against Djokovic and extend his winning streak in Monte Carlo.
The Pick: Rafael Nadal