This is one of the exciting weeks in tennis—provided you’re not an American without the Tennis Channel. If you are, this is one of the frustrating weeks in tennis. The sport returns to an historic sight, the Monte Carlo Country Club, with its red clay courts and blue Mediterranean water rolling out behind it. It’s an annual sign of spring for a tennis fan, and one of the payoffs we get for having a bloated season. The year may be long, but it’s also split into discrete sections that can be digested on their own. Monte Carlo marks the start of my favorite part of the year, the European red-clay swing.
After the down-to-earth, no-nonsense hard-court tennis of the last couple months, it’s a pleasant shock to see the sport played in a very different way. In the U.S., clay has a reputation for tedium, but discerning fans know that the surface is a test of many skills. It allows and inspires flights of creativity while requiring added levels of stamina, both mental and physical. Most of the world’s best are in Monte Carlo (the exceptions, as usual, being Americans Andy Roddick and James Blake) to begin making the long transition that ends two months from now in Paris. (Click here to see the draw.)
First Quarter
This section has an eye-popper: Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic heading for a quarterfinal showdown. Djokovic, who reached the quarters of the French Open last year, looks safe—he’s got Dmitry Tursunov, Gaston Gaudio, David Ferrer, Gilles Simon, or Julian Benneteau as possible opponents. Federer, who has been heavily focused on this event and the clay season in general, will make it as well, but I’d like to see him face Mikhail Youzhny in the third round. That could be a shot-making exhibition.
First-round grind to watch: Simon vs. Ferrer (welcome to clay, everyone!)
Semifinalist: Roger Federer
Second Quarter
The top seed here is Fernando Gonzalez, who should be primed for clay after his early season success. The question is whether he can shake off the burnout that came with it and hurt him in Indian Wells and Key Biscayne. The bigger question mark for me is Richard Gasquet. He beat Federer in Monte Carlo two years ago, and the pros love to come back to the scenes of their breakthroughs. He’s also watched two contemporaries, Djokovic and Andy Murray, move ahead of him in the next-big-thing sweepstakes this season. While he has a tricky first-rounder in Fernando Verdasco, this is as good a place as any for the Frenchman to make his counterattack.
First-round grind to watch: Igor Andreev vs. José Acasuso
Semifinalist: Richard Gasquet
Third Quarter
What should we make of Nikolay Davydenko after his superb 2006? Is there nowhere to go but down? If you’ve seen him in person, you know he’s got the movement and ball-striking skills of a major champion. But he’s a little guy, he has to work for absolutely everything, and his self-belief will always be shaky. Davydenko knows the clay game well; this spring swing will be a test of his staying power. With Robredo, Baghdatis, and Berdych surrounding him, it’s Kolya’s section to lose. Unfortunately, I think he will.
First-round slugfest to watch: Tomas Berdych vs. Nicolas Almagro
Semifinalist: Tommy Robredo
Fourth Quarter
The absence of the Americans has allowed Andy Murray to snag an eighth seed, a buy, and a fairly soft second-rounder. He could get Nalbandian after that. The two have played once, a five-setter at Wimbledon in 2005 won by Nalbandian. The bottom half of this section is doing its best to feature the long-awaited first meeting between Rafael Nadal and Marat Safin. The Russian won his first round, but still must get past the winner of Paul-Henri Mathieu and Kristof Vliegen. I think we may have to wait a little longer to see our dream match-up.
First-round shot-making contest to watch: Mathieu vs. Vliegen
Semifinalist: Rafael Nadal
Enjoy the wall-to-wall coverage on the Tennis Channel, if you have it. If you don’t, um, carry on. Or try the web at atpmastersseries.tv. It might just work.