Which player has the most to prove at Indian Wells and Miami?

With the Sunshine Swing about to get underway—the 2025 BNP Paribas Open begins on Wednesday, March 5—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions heading into Indian Wells and Miami.

First up: Which player has the most to prove in March?

PETE BODO: Novak Djokovic doesn’t have anything to prove in the big picture, but the “small picture” counts as well, and that means the acclaimed GOAT needs to show that he’s still relevant instead of just taking a victory lap. The Serbian star has pocketed a mind-blowing 11 titles at the Sunshine Double (five in Indian Wells, six in Miami), but he abandoned his recent Australian Open semifinal with injury, and he’s just 2-2 in his other tournaments in 2025. He hasn’t won a tournament since late 2023. Djokovic was stunned by lucky loser Luca Nardi in the second round at Indian Wells last year, and pulled out of Miami for the fourth year in a row—presumably to spare himself for the clay season. A poor showing in the desert would trigger a red flag.

JOEL DRUCKER: In September 2023, Holger Rune was ranked No. 4, right in the thick of things with such peers as Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. “We cannot compare ourselves at all yet to Novak, Rafa and Roger,” the Dane said last summer. “But the fact that people are starting to talk about the Next Big 3 is exciting. . . hopefully they’ll be calling us the next Big Three.” But Rune tumbled out of the Top 10 last April, hasn’t reached a final in over a year, and is now ranked 13th. Last year, he lost in the quarters of Indian Wells and the second round of Miami. Might the ’25 edition of the Sunshine Swing be Rune’s chance to vault back into the elite?

STEPHANIE LIVAUDAIS: A win at Indian Wells or Miami would be a major statement for Iga Swiatek, who hasn’t claimed a title since hiring coach Wim Fissette and testing positive for a banned substance in November.

DAVID KANE: Jasmine Paolini faces the unenviable challenge of following up a breakthrough season, one in which she performed well almost everywhere (but most notably at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, where she reached back-to-back finals). That means she's defending big points almost everywhere she goes, and so, after starting the year at a career-high of No. 4, she's already down to No. 6 after an injury hastened the end of her title defense in Dubai. Indian Wells and Miami provide a rare rankings respite for the popular Italian, who only posted fourth- and third-round finishes during last year's Sunshine Swing. A strong run at both or either tournament would consolidate her spot at the top of the game; more early exits could portend a quick descent by the summer.

LIYA DAVIDOV: Casper Ruud. The former world No. 2 needs a little pick-me-up to remind players, fans and maybe even himself that he’s an accomplished competitor. Going into his tenth year on tour, Ruud has twelve titles to his name, the biggest title being an ATP 500. For context, the only other Top 10 players who have yet to win an ATP 1000 are Alex de Minaur and Tommy Paul, whose rankings have been upward moving for the better part of a year. Ruud needs to find a way to consistently channel the player who made the 2022 US Open final and rediscover his form on hard courts.

JON LEVEY: After his US Open final run last summer, 2025 held a lot of promise for Taylor Fritz. However, the world No. 4 has had a curious start to the year. It opened favorably as he helped lead the U.S. team to the United Cup title. Since then, though, he has essentially been a .500 player. He was the top seed at both Dallas and Delray Beach (where he was the two-time defending champ) and could only muster one win at each tournament. Fritz usually thrives on his native hard courts—he won Indian Wells in 2022—and could use some productive home-cooking before hitting the European clay.

ED MCGROGAN: Emma Navarro was a US Open semifinalist last year, but you’d never think that based on her play this season. Yes, she reached the quarters at the Australian Open, but even her wins in Melbourne were struggles—the only match that ended in straights was her 6-1, 6-2 loss to Iga Swiatek. Outside that tournament, she’s just 2-4. The 23-year-old leveled up in 2024, but after a slow start to ’25, March will be telling of her Navarro’s status, and the expectations that come with it.

MATT FITZGERALD: Maria Sakkari certainly wants to get something going ASAP. A shoulder injury ended her 2024 season after the US Open and the former world No. 3 has since managed three wins in her first 10 outings (main draw) this year. Having dropped to No. 30 in the rankings, Sakkari has the tall order of defending a runner-up showing at the first leg of the Sunshine Double. While a repeat performance in Indian Wells is a lot to ask right now, the BNP Paribas Open presently accounts for more than a third of the Greek's ranking points.