Naomi Osaka lacks hardware in 2024—but nothing else, as the US Open nears

Naomi Osaka, a four-time Grand Slam champion, former WTA No. 1, mother and international celebrity, began her comeback the conventional way at the beginning of the year. Twice an Australian Open champion, she came to Melbourne in January hoping to launch a successful return to tennis following her most recent sabbatical, this one to birth her baby daughter Shai.

Speaking to reporters, the 26-year-old acknowledged feeling nostalgic about the event she missed altogether in 2023.

“I guess [I enjoyed] just going into the locker room and having the same locker as before. Little things like that really make me happy,” she said. “Just being able to hit on Rod Laver [Arena], I guess [to just] look up at the sky and kind of just realize, like, I've been able to win twice here. I would love to do it again.”

It was not to be. Osaka took her first-round loss to Caroline Garcia in stride, and boldly declared that she was playing a long game, setting herself up to round into peak form for September and the US Open.

Now, on the eve of the final Grand Slam of the year, it’s difficult to say if she accomplished her goal—or what to expect of the 2018 and 2020 US Open champion, who has said that her goal is winning majors again.

“I think you can't ever count out a Grand Slam champion, especially when she’s won the US Open already,” Tennis Channel analyst and former WTA Top 10 player Coco Vandeweghe told me recently. “But even as she (Osaka) herself has said, her body, her game, is not where she wants to be—nor does she feel like she understands where her game should go now, post-baby.”

This has been a strange year for Osaka, a bizarro-world kind of season that offers scant clues about what to expect come the frenzy in Flushing. She has played her best tennis on her least favorite surface, clay, and circled the drain like rain on hard courts. A pro since 2013, she has struck a truce in her war with her profession, and embraced with both arms the implicit challenges and pressures she once repudiated. After losing to Elise Mertens in the second round of the Toronto 1000, she reaffirmed her commitment to the sport.

“Unfortunately, I have always suffered from perfectionism and I doubt myself a lot,” she said. “but I think that going through this process and having really tough losses, I’ve learned a lot about myself. I learned that I really love this game and am willing to do whatever it takes to get to where I feel like I deserve to be in tennis.”

Just where she deserves to be is the question of the moment, and the answer is unclear. In some ways, this year has been a goodwill tour, with Osaka seemingly a changed woman from the sensitive and introspective star whose rebellion against tennis in 2021 triggered a lengthy, across-the-board dialogue about mental health in the elite athlete community. Her rebound has been poignant, but Osaka has been riding on a road full of potholes.

After finishing the year-opening swing Down Under 1-2, Osaka seemed to find better conditions in the Middle East, where she improved on a first-round loss to blazing Danielle Collins in Abu Dhabi by reaching the quarterfinals in Doha. She was then beaten by Karolina Pliskova in two tiebreakers.

While heartened by her play at the 1000 event, Osaka acknowledged that she was struggling to adjust to her post-natal body.

“I kind of felt like I was driving a car that wasn’t mine,” she said of how she felt as she sought to recover her fitness and effectiveness. “It’s kind of tough when you don't see results as quickly.”

Back in the U.S. for Indian Wells and Miami, Osaka’s hard-court game—always her bread and butter—continued to flicker on and off like a faulty light switch. She went 4-2 in those two 1000s, and left for the European red clay she once dreaded barely above .500 (8-6) on hard courts, the surface on which she won all seven of her titles.

But to the surprise of nearly everyone, Osaka put together an impressive swing on Euroclay—so much that fans dubbed her “Clayomi.” After opting for a quick if unusual training block in Mallorca following two matches in Madrid, the tumblers fell into place.

I kind of see my game as being good against anybody. I also was raised with not having any fear. . . I think going into a match fearing someone is kind of pointless. Naomi Osaka

In Rome, Osaka beat two Top 20 clay artisans, Marta Kostyuk and Daria Kasatkina. Her run ended in the fourth round with a loss to seventh-seeded Zheng Qinwen. And in the grand finale of the clay swing, Roland Garros, Osaka had a match point on three-time champion Iga Swaitek, but a potential shot heard round the world misfired, and the Pole went to claim another title in Paris.

Technically, it was a loss. Symbolically, it was a win that augured well for Osaka with the heart of the season fast approaching.

“I think we were all bullish on how she was progressing after that tournament,” Pam Shriver, the ESPN analyst and coach of Donna Vekic told me. “She seemed so positive through the clay-court season. She was talking about taking losses in stride, saying she’s learning and enjoying it, and making jokes about becoming a clay-court specialist.

“And then all of a sudden, it’s like the bottom fell out with Wimbledon, and further on.”

Whatever the reason, it was clear during the ensuing swing on grass that Osaka was spinning her wheels. She was 2-2 on turf going into Wimbledon, where she eked out a tough three-set win over Diane Parry, before falling to Emma Navarro, 6-4, 6-1.

Vandeweghe, who called the 6-1, 1-6, 6-4 win over Parry for Tennis Channel, was impressed by Osaka’s quality in the first set—and borderline baffled by the way she allowed the second and third sets to get away from her.

“She (Osaka) blitzed that first set, like, it was a joke.” Vandeweghe said. “It was the old Naomi, the one who took the racquet out of her opponent's hands. And then all of a sudden, a couple mistakes happened, and then she pressed too hard and tried to get it all back in one shot.”

Vandweghe added that while Osaka is hitting the ball as clean as ever, going into her traditional ultra-aggressive mode doesn’t pay off because her defense isn’t yet up to snuff.

“It all goes back to movement,” said the three-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist. “As an aggressive player, you want to be on the front foot and she isn’t always there yet.”

Osaka’s roller-coaster ride continued with a tough-draw loss to fellow Grand Slam champ Angelique Kerber in the first round of the Olympic Games, and a second-round loss to Mertens (again) in Toronto. In a drastic move, Osaka entered qualifying for the Cincinnati Open, but stumbled out in the second and final round.

“It was impressive that she rolled up her sleeves and played the qualifying,” Shriver said. “But it must have been a little bit of a tough one to take. I mean, she’s so quiet, so who knows?”

The pattern that emerged in the course of Osaka’s year looks somewhat ominous. She started the year 1-1 in Brisbane, and it’s been the same in three of her last four tournaments, and in both of the most recent majors. There were some high—or at least higher—points in between, but very little from which anyone can draw predictive conclusions about the US Open.

Still, Vandeweghe believes Osaka will “have a good chance to make the third, fourth round pretty easily.” That said, the 85^th-ranked megastar could face a killer draw, because she will be unseeded, and the going could get tough quickly, especially if the ambient conditions—oppressive heat, rain delays, interrupted schedules that cancel off days—become factors.

Yet for all the twists and turns in her year, the greatest surprise of all may be the way Osaka has borne the pressure as well as the stress. She essentially quit the game in 2021 because the weight of expectations had grown too heavy even for her substantial shoulders, but she has met all her challenges head on this year with great equanimity and poise.

Osaka has played more tournaments this year than she did in many of her peak years. She has been thoughtful and frank, sometimes even jovial, while absorbing those mythic slings and arrows. Her efforts to grind away the accumulated rust have not been entirely successful, but she has remained steadfast and, for one who often seems so timid, not averse to asserting herself. She’s learned how to throw down a gauntlet.

“I was a little delusional when I was coming back,” Osaka said at Roland Garros. “But I kind of see my game as being good against anybody. I also was raised with not having any fear. . .  I think going into a match fearing someone is kind of pointless.”

Looking back at Osaka’s watershed Roland Garros of 2021, when she withdrew for mental health reasons, in comparison to the most recent one, Vandeweghe remarked, “It was all too negative for her back then. Now here she is, performing at her best [against Swiatek]. It’s funny how the world can spin on its axis like that. It’s silly. But honestly, in tennis, you can have a good week at any point in time.”

And that good week—make that two good weeks—is exactly what Osaka will be looking for in Gotham. It would be unwise to discount her because no matter what her won-lost record suggests, she is a champion, well-seasoned.