New Depth in the Desert

Each year since 2001, the BNP Paribas Open, the WTA, and the press covering the event have had to do their best with the women’s draw at Indian Wells. We could claim that not having the two most famous U.S. players, Venus and Serena Williams, in action might actually be a good thing, that it gave fans in this part of the world a chance to get to know the tour’s other players. But there was no getting around it in the end: Without the Williamses, the women’s side of the tournament felt a lot less marquee, especially in the state where they grew up.

So consider it one more reason to welcome Serena back in 2015. Here’s a look at the rejuvenated WTA draw, and how it might play out with the world’s best player involved. (See my thoughts on Serena's return, and what it means, here.)

Serena will have the eyes of the world, tennis and otherwise, on her when she takes the court for the first time Friday. Will she be tight? Will she be inspired? I would guess she’ll start out the first way, and end up the second. Serena can have a nervy moment anywhere, and against anyone, and it would make sense if she had a few in Indian Wells.

Her draw should help her breathe a little more easily. She’ll start against Monica Niculescu; the Romanian is ranked No. 68, but she has an unorthodox and quite-possibly-irritating game—think slice forehands, lots of them. She and Serena have never played. The good news for Williams is that several potentially difficult opponents, Victoria Azarenka, Caroline Wozniacki, Ana Ivanovic, and Garbine Muguruza, are not in her quarter.

But even without Serena, this is an intriguing section. Two players who have been on the rise of late, Lucie Safarova and Timea Bacsinsky, are here. So are Elina Svitolina, who took a set from Serena in Australia, and Ekaterina Makarova, a semifinalist at the last two majors.

Second-round match to watch: Sloane Stephens vs. Angelique Kerber

If we’re wondering how Serena will feel during her first match, what about Simona Halep? On Monday, a cousin of hers in Romania committed suicide; by the time you read this, she may have withdrawn. If she doesn’t, the No. 3 seed will start against Daria Gavrilova. The two have never played.

Agnieszka Radwanska is on the other side of this section, and she’s also one of the more interesting figures in the draw as a whole. She’s had time now to work with new coach Martina Navratilova. What, if anything, will that mean for Aga’s game here? If Martina counsels more attacking, is Aga equipped to carry out the order? She’ll start against Alison Riske of the U.S., and would play either Heather Watson or Camila Giorgi after that. Radwanska reached the final here in 2014.

Potential third-round match to watch: Karolina Pliskova vs. Garbine Muguruza. Two relatively new, and young, members of the Top 20, both poised to move higher. Here they stand in each other’s way.

For fans at Indian Wells, the news from this quarter is that Madison Keys will make her first appearance since her semifinal run at the Australian Open. Now, you could say, the hard part begins—i.e., living up to U.S. fans’ newly heightened expectations. It was obviously a burden for Sloane Stephens, who was in exactly this position two years ago, and my own expectation for Keys at the moment aren’t especially high. I would anticipate a step back before she makes another leap forward—but I do expect the leap to happen. Madison won’t be able to ease her way back in here: Her first three matches could come against three former Indian Wells champions, Daniela Hantuchova, Jelena Jankovic, and Caroline Wozniacki. The latter of those, Wozniacki, just won an event in Kuala Lumpur and has to rate as a contender for her second title here.

Also returning, on the other side of this section, is Genie Bouchard. The Canadian has been in virtual hiding, tennis-wise, since Australia; she's played and lost just one match since hiring new coach Sam Sumyk. As with Radwanska and Navratilova, we’ll get an early look here at what progress player and coach may have made together. Bouchard’s draw looks manageable; the seeds nearest her are CoCo Vandeweghe, Alizé Cornet, and Andrea Petkovic.

Player of Interest: Belinda Bencic. The Swiss teen who was so impressive last year hasn’t wasted any time miring herself in a sophomore slump. She’s 1-5 so far in 2015. If she wins her second match of the year, she’ll probably face Wozniacki.

The biggest non-Serena-related question coming into this draw was where Victoria Azarenka, champion here in 2012, would land. She snuck in as the last of the 32 (i.e., too many) seeds, but it didn’t protect her much; Vika is scheduled to face No. 2 Maria Sharapova in the third round. That should be a good one: Azarenka leads their head to head 7-6, and she dominated Maria in the final here in 2012. But Maria has won their last two meetings, and is the in-form player at the moment. Vika is still striving to find her form; a win over Sharapova would be a big milestone on her comeback road.

Also here:

—Ana Ivanovic: The Serb has struggled over the last month, and she might face the woman who beat her last week, Caroline Garcia, in the third round.

—Flavia Pennetta: As the defending champ, she has some points to defend.

First-round match of wild cards to watch: Taylor Townsend vs. Bethanie Mattek-Sands

Semifinals: S. Williams d. Radwanska; Wozniacki d. Sharapova

Final: S. Williams d. Wozniacki