Australian Open

Not as much Novak Djokovic support as you might expect: 2024 Australian Open Expert Picks

Our panel makes their predictions for the men's and women's champions, dark horses and early exits in Melbourne.

Published Jan 11, 2024

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Peter Bodo

Men's finalists and champion: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz; Alcaraz 🏆
Men's dark horse: Grigor Dimitrov
Men's early exit: Stefanos Tsitsipas

It’s been hard to pick anyone but Djokovic to win recently, but this year feels different. Injury issues have played a larger role for him lately, and while his draw starts friendly, he will be facing serious firepower in later rounds. That’s a tough one-two punch.

Women's finalists and champion: Jessica Pegula vs. Coco Gauff; Gauff 🏆
Women's dark horse: Zheng Qinwen
Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

Nothing would make me happier than to see Elina Svitolina win the title for her homeland, Ukraine. I’m awed by the way she and her compatriots have handled their emotions while competing regularly against pros from Russia and Belarus—very few of whom have shown them public or private support.

One way or another, expect Carlos Alcaraz to be a major factor at the Australian Open.

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Joel Drucker

Men's finalists and champion: Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz; Djokovic 🏆
Men's dark horse: J.J. Wolf
Men's early exit: Andrey Rublev

As the master of Melbourne, Djokovic has long had all the answers. Now it’s time for others to pose better questions. Who will volley more frequently and effectively? Or serve big enough for long periods? Take bigger cuts when returning? Only the innovators can even think about derailing Djokovic.

Women's finalists and champion: Iga Swiatek vs. Coco Gauff; Swiatek 🏆
Women's dark horse: Paula Badosa
Women's early exit: Maria Sakkari

For all the justifiable conjecture about the possibilities of Swiatek, Gauff, defending champion Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina and Marketa Vondrousova, I’m equally fascinated to see how things go for returning past winners Naomi Osaka, Victoria Azarenka, Caroline Wozniacki and Angelique Kerber. Each round promises interest.

It's hard not to like Elena Rybakina after her win over defending AO champion Aryna Sabalenka last week.

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Matt Fitzgerald

Men's finalists and champion: Novak Djokovic vs. Grigor Dimitrov; Djokovic 🏆
Men's dark horse: Jack Draper
Men's early exit: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Djokovic’s path to historic major No. 25 is one to like, and let’s not forget he’s 20-0 once reaching the semis in Melbourne. The bottom half presents several plausible options to send through. If ever there was a time to back Dimitrov’s chances to be that guy, it’s now.

Women's finalists and champion: Elena Rybakina vs. Aryna Sabalenka; Rybakina 🏆
Women's dark horse: Jelena Ostapenko
Women's early exit: Marketa Vondrousova

An AO final rematch is on the table after Rybakina landed in the top half. Her road to the title has a tricky opener and may require taking out the world No. 1 here for a second year running, but there was much to like about her opening-week statement win in Brisbane.

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David Kane

Men's finalists and champion: Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev; Medvedev 🏆
Men's dark horse: Roman Safiullin
Men's early exit: Stefanos Tsitsipas

A contemporary of Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, Safiullin began to gain momentum last summer with a first Wimbledon quarterfinal, and ended 2023 with a stunning win over Carlos Alcaraz. Might the Russian be due for a Karatsev-esque run in Melbourne?

Women's finalists and champion: Elena Rybakina vs. Coco Gauff; Gauff 🏆
Women's dark horse: Emma Raducanu
Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

After a disappointing Wimbledon final defeat, Jabeur ended 2023 with a thud, getting routing by both Gauff and Iga Swiatek at the WTA Finals. Yet to play a match in 2024, she has a tricky second-rounder against an in-form Mirra Andreeva that could spell disaster.

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Jon Levey

Men's finalists and champion: Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev; Sinner 🏆
Men's dark horse: Grigor Dimitrov
Men's early exit: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Dimitrov has carried his strong finish in 2023 into this season, winning the title in Brisbane. At 32, he has capably grown into his senior statesman status, adding a little bit of grit to his flashy, all-court game.

Women's finalists and champion: Elena Rybakina vs. Coco Gauff; Rybakina 🏆
Women's dark horse: Caroline Wozniacki
Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

Rybakina came up one match short in Melbourne last year, losing a tug-of-war with Sabalenka. She’s coming in hot, blitzing the field in Brisbane, including a rout of Sabalenka in the finals. When Rybakina hits cruise control, the match is always on her racquet.

Great to back on RLA after a few years away! This court will always be very special to me! @AustralianOpen 💪🏻 pic.twitter.com/8LnSQyLClI
— Caroline Wozniacki (@CaroWozniacki) January 8, 2024

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Stephanie Livaudais

Men's finalists and champion: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz; Alcaraz 🏆
Men's dark horse: Jiri Lehecka
Men's early exit: Stefanos Tsitsipas

It’s all on Novak Djokovic’s racquet—or rather, on his worrisome right wrist. But if the 10-time champ can’t play his way back into form fast, red-hot Alcaraz and Sinner would be more than happy to capitalize on the chance to renew their entertaining rivalry.

Women's finalists and champion: Elena Rybakina vs. Aryna Sabalenka; Rybakina 🏆
Women's dark horse: Leylah Fernandez
Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

Former US Open finalist Fernandez closed out the 2023 season by returning to the winner’s circle, and she’s full of confidence after leading Canada to a historic Billie Jean King Cup victory—where she also scored her first Top 10 victory in over a year, against Marketa Vondrousova.

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Ed McGrogan

Men's finalists and champion: Jannik Sinner vs. Holger Rune; Sinner 🏆
Men's dark horse: Jordan Thompson
Men's early exit: Novak Djokovic

For Djokovic, an early exit may simply mean a loss before the semifinals. With his wrist injury at United Cup, it’s at least conceivable, given his draw. But more to the point: I think Sinner’s ready. Rune enters on a hot streak of his own, setting up a new, “Now Gen” final.

Women's finalists and champion: Iga Swiatek vs. Coco Gauff; Swiatek 🏆
Women's dark horse: Mirra Andreeva
Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

It’s almost shocking that Swiatek hasn’t reached an Australian Open final already. She’ll take care of that in 2024. As busts go, Marketa Vondrousova is a candidate, but if she doesn’t play, Jabeur is a prime target. And her second-round conqueror, Andreeva, can go much further.

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Steve Tignor

Men's finalists and champion: Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev; Medvedev 🏆
Men's dark horse: Alex de Minaur
Men's early exit: Alexander Zverev

Is this the year a younger player finally conquers Djokovic in Melbourne? The question has a Groundhog’s Day quality to it; we’ve been asking it for about a decade. But with Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Medvedev in the field, it may be a more relevant, and interesting, theme than ever before.

Women's finalists and champion: Elena Rybakina vs. Aryna Sabalenka; Rybakina 🏆
Women's dark horse: Zheng Qinwen
Women's early exit: Jessica Pegula

Most eyes will be on Japan’s Naomi Osaka to start, but will China’s Zheng last longer in the draw? Osaka is working with Zheng’s old coach, while Zheng is now working with Coco Gauff’s. Whoever is behind her, the 21-year-old seems ready for a Slam breakthrough in 2024.

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