Does title 100 for Novak Djokovic lie in red clay?

Novak Djokovic’s quest to win his 100th ATP Tour title, a self-avowed mission, took a sharp, unexpected turn in the Miami Open final, denying the 37-year old Serbian a historic moment just as the window closed on the hard courts where he finds his greatest success.

The story of what transpired in the cloying, post-deluge humidity of Sunday evening is one of the oldest in the book. The wise if not exactly wizened master was taken to the woodshed by his own protege, 19-year-old Jakub Mensik.

READ MORE: **In beating idol Novak Djokovic, Jakub Mensik came of age in Miami**

The Czech youth rode his booming serve to victory in two tiebreakers, 7-6 (3), 7-6 (4), but the most striking feature in play was Mensik’s ability to hold his own—and then some‚ in long, spectacular rallies. It ultimately enabled Mensik to break down Djokovic physically.

Djokovic, long-celebrated for his superb fitness and grit, now has a lot of thinking to do as the clay-court season in Europe begins to pick up momentum.

While Djokovic produced his career-capping win on red clay at the Paris Olympics in 2024, and claimed the title at Roland Garros in his last great year (2023), his 20 career titles on clay ranks well behind his 71 hard-court triumphs (he also has eight on grass). Djokovic has cut back his clay schedule in recent years. Will he stick with that approach, add events, or perhaps scale back even further?

Djokovic’s once seemingly bulletproof, elastic body has become more susceptible to strains and tears, and the clay season had been shaping up as something of a free-for-all even before world No. 1 Jannik Sinner returns from his doping suspension at the Italian Open (one of Djokovic’s favorite clay events). Some of the most dangerous newcomers—among them Mensik and Joao Fonseca—were schooled on clay, much like other notables including Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev. All of them have expertise in the art of wearing down opponents with consistency and power.

READ MORE: Novak's 99 Titles—a Djokovic deep dive: What they are, where they were won, when he did

The consensus GOAT will have his work cut out in the coming weeks. In the Miami final Djokovic grew visibly fatigued, huffing and puffing as the match wore on. The key, fifth point in the second set tiebreaker was a warp-speed, 21-shot rally that ended in a mini-break for Mensik, with Djokovic sprawled on his back, limbs akinbo, on the court. Mensik’s ability to extend intense rallies had become the controlling factor. If it were a prize-fight, Mensik would have been awarded a TKO.

”Two tiebreakers, just a very weird match with rain delays and all the things that happened,” Djokovic told reporters after the trophy presentation (rain had pushed back the start of the final by over four hours). He said he didn’t feel “great” on the court, but did not want to take anything away from Mensik’s victory.

Few expected this tournament to go pear-shaped on Djokovic after the way he’d been playing in the run-up to the final. In previous days, he had fairly beamed about the form he recovered after having taken early losses in his two previous tournaments. After a few early wins in Miami, he told Tennis Channel’s Prakash Amritraj, “The last time I was consistently playing as well, match-after-match, probably was at Olympic Games. When I play like this, everything is enjoyable.”

Djokovic also had a week at the service notch. In the quarterfinals against Sebastian Korda, he made 84% of his first serves and fired 12 aces. In his semifinal win over physically compromised Grigor Dimitrov, Djokovic put 87% of his first serves in the box. It looked as if that kind of serving, combined with Djokovic’s nonpareil returning and rallying ability, was well nigh unbeatable.

Although Djokovic posted another excellent first-serve conversion rate in the final, 76 percent, Mensik rewrote the narrative. It leaves Djokovic with some hard thinking to do about just how much of his store of resources he should invest in clay futures.