Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz and more Olympic tennis gold-medal match previews

Men's Singles

Novak Djokovic (SRB) 🇷🇸 vs. Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) 🇪🇸

Any meeting between the Serb and the Spaniard is special. But this one comes with a good deal of extra moutarde. Neither of these two has an Olympic gold medal in his trophy case, and both know that the chances to win one don’t come around often.

That’s especially true for the 37-year-old Djokovic, who has been trying, and failing, to bring home Olympic gold since 2008. At this point, he sees it as the capstone to his career. Alcaraz, 16 years younger, obviously has more time to do it, but that’s not how he has played in Paris. He has had the focus of a man who is on a mission to make it happen now.

Djokovic is the top seed, the living legend, and the man who may want this match more, but Alcaraz is the favorite for a few reasons. He’s coming off a Channel Slam at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. He just beat Djokovic handily in the Wimbledon final. He has lifted himself into peak form this week, and looked unplayable in a 6-1, 6-1 semifinal win over Felix Auger-Aliassime on Friday. Djokovic, meanwhile, is still dealing with pain in his right knee.

The positive for Djokovic is that, whatever his physical issues may be, he has competed with a refuse-to-lose mentality in his last two matches. In the quarterfinals against Stefanos Tsitsipas, he hung on by a thread through the second set, and eventually won it. Against Lorenzo Musetti, Djokovic was an emotional wreck for much of the match, but at the end of each set he channeled those emotions in a winning direction.

Normally, Djokovic only lies down on the court in celebration when he wins a big final. This time he did it after winning a semifinal. That shows us how much clinching at least a silver medal means to him. But what will it mean for how he’ll perform in the gold-medal round? Does his celebration reveal that he has doubts about his chances against Alcaraz? Will knowing that he has a silver in his back pocket help him relax and play better? Or will it make him just a little less do-or-die against the Spaniard?

All will be revealed in one of the year’s biggest matches on Sunday. Winner: Alcaraz

Women's Singles

Zheng Qinwen (CHN) 🇨🇳 vs. Donna Vekic (CRO) 🇭🇷

The Paris Olympics will give us a third straight surprise women’s singles winner. In Rio, it was Monica Puig; in Tokyo, it was Belinda Bencic. In Paris, the gold medal will go either to the seventh-ranked Zheng or 21st-ranked Vekic.

Neither came out of nowhere, exactly; Zheng made the Australian Open final this year, and Vekic made the semis at Wimbledon just a few weeks ago. But Iga Swiatek was a heavy favorite for gold at Roland Garros—until Zheng outplayed her in the semis.

Zheng and Vekic are 1-1 head-to-head. Vekic won their first match, in 2021, and Zheng won a three-setter last year on hard courts in Zhuhai. Both of them have dodged a bullet or two in Paris. Zheng saved a match point against Emma Navarro and beat Angelique Kerber 8-6 in a third-set tiebreaker. Vekic saved match points as well, against Marta Kostyuk, in a 10-8 third-set breaker. Zheng and Vekic are also responsible for knocking out the No. 1 and 2 seeds, Swiatek and Coco Gauff.

Zheng is the better athlete, and should be the favorite. She’s seven years younger (21 to 28), ranked 14 spots higher, has played a match of this magnitude in Melbourne, and would seem to have a much higher ceiling. But she’s also still erratic, and her game can go up and down depending on her somewhat-funky serve.

The Olympics are all about the moment, and at this moment I’m leaning slightly toward Vekic, even though she has never played a final like this. Her forehand has been better and heavier than ever this week, and, most important, she stayed calm in a bunch of high-tension moments against Gauff and Kostyuk that might have unraveled her in the past. Winner: Vekic

Men's Doubles

Matthew Ebden and John Peers (AUS) 🇦🇺 vs. Rajeev Ram and Austin Krajicek (USA) 🇺🇸

Score one for the doubles specialists, and the over-30s. Each of these four has at least one Grand Slam title in doubles, and each is at least 34 years old—Ram has even crossed the Rubicon of 40. But their doubles muscle memory has been enough to get them past two of the best singles-oriented teams in the draw. Ram and Krajicek beat Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz; Ebden and Peers beat Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul.

The elders, Ram and Ebden, are also the team leaders. At 6’4’’, with a smooth, Sampras-esque motion, Ram still has a good serve, and is still a commanding presence at net, while Krajicek provides lefty balance. That mix may give them enough of an edge to bring gold back to the States. Winner: Ram/Krajicek

Women's Doubles

Sara Errani and Jasmine Paolini (ITA) 🇮🇹 vs. Diana Shnaider and Mirra Andreeva (AIN)

Shnaider and Andreeva, two Russians playing under neutral colors in Paris, pulled off the stunner of the tournament when they beat Barbora Krejcikova and Katerina Siniakova, the gold medalists in Tokyo who were favored to win again. Now the young duo will be up against another top team of late, Paolini and Errani, who made the final on these courts at Roland Garros back in June.

This match will be a mix. We have two top-level singles players in Paolini and Andreeva. We have two young players on the Russian team, going up against the 37-year-old Errani and 28-year-old Paolini. We have various playing styles represented, from the lefty Shnaider, to the scrappy Errani, to the ultra-quick Paolini, to the precociously hard-hitting Andreeva. I’ll pick the more experienced and higher-ranked team to prevail. Winner: Paolini/Errani