Novak Djokovic vs. Jakub Mensik: Where to watch, and who will win, their Miami Open final

Where to Watch

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Preview and Pick

You may not know much about the 19-year-old Jakub Mensik, but he won’t take Novak Djokovic by surprise. He’s been aware of the kid’s talent for a while now, and has even used it to help keep him sharp.

“Jakub is somebody that I’ve been following for the last three or four years,” Djokovic said when they played last fall in Shanghai. “We like playing each other, we raise the level when we face each other. We’ve played a lot of practice sets and it’s always fun.”

“I haven’t trained with him for a year and a half, so I could see today why he is one of the best servers we have in the game.”

That quarterfinal was the only official meeting between the two, and Djokovic narrowly won it, 6-7 (4), 6-1, 6-4 in a tiring two and a half hours.

“We went toe-to-toe until the last moment,” Djokovic said. “I was fortunate to find great serves in the last game, a couple of aces, that helps.”

Can we expect something similar when they meet in the Miami final on Sunday? In Shanghai, Djokovic was also going for his 100th career title; he fell one match short, losing to Jannik Sinner in the final. Six months later, he’s still going for his 100th title. He may be getting a little desperate. His 38th birthday is coming up, he doesn’t make finals whenever he wants anymore, and this will be a chance to win one without having to face a Top 10, or even a Top 50, opponent.

Yet Mensik, while he’s only 54th in the world right now, may prove to be as formidable an obstacle as anyone on tour at the moment. As Djokovic recognized years ago, the 6'4" Czech has Top 10 talent, and it has begun to show in Miami. He has reached his Masters 1000 final, and beaten Taylor Fritz, Jack Draper and Arthur Fils along the way. His serve has been the best shot in the tournament; with his ultra-smooth motion, he can seemingly drop the ball on a dime. Even Djokovic’s legendary return won’t be a match for 130 MPH serves that clip the lines.

The issue for Djokovic may be physical—“Can I still keep up with someone half my age, at the end of a long event?” The issue for Mensik may be mental—“Can I beat my idol, on this type of stage, and deny him his 100th title?”

Read more: Jakub Mensik joins new wave of rising ATP stars in Miami

“For a tennis player, there is not a harder task,” Mensik says, admitting that he didn’t handle his nerves well when they played in Shanghai.

But that was then.

“I feel that the conditions and everything here suits me very well,” Mensik said of the warm air and fast courts in Miami. “I’m going there on Sunday to win. No doubt on that.”

Mensik will have the natural advantages that every big server enjoys: He’ll get free points in his own service games, and he’ll make his opponent nervous about having to hold. But Djokovic may not be far behind him in that department. His serve has been excellent as well at this tournament, with first-serve percentages in the 80s. Mensik also failed to break Fritz once in their semifinal.

“Now I know how it feels like to be Isner or Opelka, just make most of your first serves,” the Serb joked. “Maybe not as many aces as these guys, but…”

Can Djokovic and Mensik “raise the level” of each other’s games, the way they do in practice? The winner may be the man who raises it highest if and when the sets get to tiebreakers. Djokovic is famous for going into lockdown mode during breakers. So far in Miami, though, Mensik is 5-0 in them. Winner: Mensik—Steve Tignor

Betting Odds

Djokovic is a -400 moneyline favorite; Mensik is a +320 underdog.

To win the first set, Djokovic is -295 and Mensik +200.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 9:00 pm ET on Saturday, March 29.)

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