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Once upon a time, she had an edge on Vondrousova in this match-up of spin-loving creatives. She won three of their first four meetings, but things have changed between them this season. So far in 2023, Vondrousova has beaten Jabeur in three sets at the Australian Open, and in a close two-setter at Indian Wells. You have to take both defeats with a few grains of salt, though; Jabeur has been hurt more than once this year, and the Indian Wells match was the first one she played after a two-month injury layoff.

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Jabeur and Vondrousova have split their six matches, but the Czech has won the last two—both occurring earlier this year.

Saturday’s contest may require something of an adjustment from both players, especially from Jabeur. In her last two wins, against Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka, she faced two of the tour’s biggest hitters and best players. Both times, she had to react, to counter-punch, to retrieve, and to pick her spots to attack and use her varied skills. Both times, it took her a set before she was able to turn their power around on them.

Against Vondrousova, Jabeur should have more opportunities to control the action and employ her slices, sidespins, drop shots and net forays. Will she use those chances wisely? Sometimes having more time to react can be a burden.

Vondrousova hasn’t had to face that kind of pace, but her last two opponents, Jessica Pegula and Elina Svitolina, are pretty straightforward hitters. Vondrousova was especially good against Svitolina, putting winning points together with ease, balancing power and finesse perfectly, and using her underrated serve effectively. Now she’ll be up against someone capable of creating that same blended attack.

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So there may be something of a mirror-image quality to this match, and neither may find it easy to have their way with the other. Vondrousova will need to hit her wide serve into the ad court well, because Jabeur likes to rip her backhand return down the line from there. But Jabeur will need to use her short crosscourt slice backhand with care, because it will go right into Vondrousova’s forehand.

If we’re lucky, it will be a competitive and complex chess match for the title. I’ll take Jabeur to get her revenge, because she has found a way against the odds twice this week, and because she’s been to a final on Centre Court once before. Winner: Jabeur

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