Paris-Bercy: Five takeaways from the draw at the year’s final Masters 1000

The men are nearing two finish lines as they start this week.

First, they’ll play the final Masters 1000 of 2024, at the Accor Arena in Bercy, starting Monday. The only significant ATP event left after that is the year-end championship in Turin. There are four spots still open for Turin, which means Paris may go a long way toward determining the eight-man lineup there.

Second, this will be the final year that the Paris Masters will be held in Bercy. In 2025, when the tournament expands from seven to 12 days, it will also expand into the bigger and hopefully better Paris La Défense Arena. Bigger and better is what we want for tennis, but I’ll miss the lounge-club vibe in Bercy. The tournament always feels like an end-of-year French tennis family reunion; hopefully that atmosphere survives in the future.

Read More: Novak Djokovic announces withdrawal from Paris Masters, leaving 2024 year-end status unclear

View Draw: Paris-Bercy — Men's Singles — Full Draw with Qualifiers

The field is set, and the players looking to qualify for Turin (presumably) know what their assignments are this week. Here are five takeaways from the draw.

Who can qualify for Turin, and how?

The top four seeds—Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, and Daniil Medvedev—have clinched spots in Turin. The fifth seed, Taylor Fritz, is well on his way. Novak Djokovic, currently in sixth place in the race, has withdrawn from Bercy and will leave his finals fate to chance.

It’s the next five seeds—Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud, Grigor Dimitrov, Alex de Minaur, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Tommy Paul—who will be at the center of the action. Ruud and Rublev are currently in the seventh and eighth positions, with De Minaur, Dimitrov, Paul, and Tsitsipas following just behind. None of them happens to be on fire at the moment: They were all in action last week, either in Vienna or Basel, but only De Minaur managed to make a semifinal.

That puts the Australian within striking distance of Rublev; De Minaur starts against Mariano Navone this week, and could play Taylor Fritz in the third round. Dimitrov and Paul need to make the final in Bercy to pass Rublev, while Tsitsipas needs to win the title.

How do the top four seeds’ draws look?

As far as Turin goes, Sinner, Alcaraz, Medvedev, and Zverev are already in. As far as the year-end No. 1 ranking goes, Sinner already has that locked down as well. But there are still points and dollars to be earned, and momentum to be gained heading toward Turin.

Sinner has won just one match in Bercy in his career, and may have the toughest road of the top four this year. While one of his potentially difficult early opponents, Felix Auger Aliassime, pulled out with a back injury, another, Ben Shelton, who reached the final in Basel this week, could be waiting for him in his opener. After that, Sinner could face 2002 champ Holger Rune in the third round, and Taylor Fritz in the quarters.

Zverev is in Sinner’s half. His road to the semis may look like this: Either Darderi or Griekspoor to start; Lorenzo Musetti, who just beat him in Vienna, in the third round; and either Rublev or Tsitsipas in the round of 16. Zverev made the final here in 2020.

Medvedev beat Zverev in that 2020 final, before losing to Djokovic in the title match in Bercy in 2021. The obstacles in his quarter this year could include Matteo Berrettini or Alexei Popyrin in the second round; Frances Tiafoe, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, or Karen Khachanov in the round of 16; and Dimitrov, who made the final here last year, in the quarters. It’s a potentially explosive section of the draw.

Like Sinner, Alcaraz will want to reverse his recent fortunes in Bercy. In 2022, he hurt himself in a semifinal loss to Holger Rune, and had to miss the rest of the year; in 2023, he went out in his opening match to Roman Safiullin. On paper at least, Alcaraz has a manageable path. The first seed he could face is Ugo Humbert, and his quarterfinal opponent may be Casper Ruud or Tommy Paul.

Who are the dark horses?

This weekend’s four finalists in Vienna and Basel—Khachanov, Draper, Shelton, and Mpetshi Perricard—will come in with momentum. But they may also come in a little less in the tank.

If we look at recent Bercy history, Khachanov won the title here in 2018, Rune did the same in 2022, while Dimitrov and Rublev made the finals and semis, respectively, in 2023.

Tomas Machac has shown flashes of brilliance this fall, and has a decent early draw. He has shown a liking for fast hard courts, but the speed of the surface in Bercy tends to fluctuated from one year to the next. We’ll see how quickly the courts are playing this time.

Frenchman Ugo Humbert has had a good fall, he’ll have the crowd with him, and he may catch Alcaraz with some rust on his racquet in the third round.

What are the early-round matches to watch?

• If Shelton wins his opener against a qualifier, he’ll face Sinner
• Rune vs. Matteo Arnaldi
• Arthur Fils vs. Marin Cilic
• Hubert Hurkacz vs. Alex Michelsen in a clash of the giants
• Tiafoe vs. Mpetshi Perricard
• Richard Gasquet vs. Flavio Cobolli
• Draper vs. Jiri Lehecka, with the winner to play Fritz
• Humbert vs. Brandon Nakashima

Who’s going to win?

Bercy has two different recent histories: The winner is either a surprise—like Rune, Khachanov, and Jack Sock in 2017—or its Novak Djokovic. The good news for everyone in this draw is that Djokovic, a seven-time champion here, is not in it.

That might lead you to think we’ll see a surprise, and that’s not a terrible bet. None of the Top 4 have anything bigger to play for, and neither Sinner nor Alcaraz has a winning history here. On the flip side, guys like Fritz, Ruud, Rublev, De Minaur, Dimitrov, and Tsitsipas should be motivated to lock down spots in Turin.

But I still lean toward Sinner in the top half, and Medvedev in the bottom half. Neither has played since Shanghai, so they should be rested. Both play well indoors. And both have shown an ability to stay consistent down the backstretch of a season, even when the Grand Slams are over.

Final: Sinner d. Medvedev