Today was meetings and housekeeping day at TennisWorld, so all is quiet on the western front, and apt to stay that way until Monday. I’m off tomorrow and looking forward to a three-day break up on the farm with my wife, Lisa, and Cowboy Luke. No daffodils or forsythia’s yet up that way, even though spring is blooming like an Outback onion in Central Park.
The farm is at 2,000 feet, and nothing much pops up out of the ground, not even Skunk Cabbage, until the end of this month. I’m hoping to keep up with Davis Cup action over the weekend, and this is what I’m thinking going in:
Chile at U.S: Rancho Mirage, Ca. outdoor grass
It’s going to be wild watching grass court tennis on TV while the snowflakes are flying outside. Chile got the benefit of the draw, with Blake leading off against Fernando Gonzalez. Blake is the guy to watch in this tie. He hasn’t really figured out the Davis Cup thing yet, and he’s leading things off against a guy who’s no pushover, not even on grass.
Fernando Gonzalez is a dangerous banger, and he’s been to the third round and quarterfinals of Wimbledon in the last two years (respectively). All that spells pressure for Blake – and a great opportunity to demonstrate his newfound maturity and improved game.
Whatever Andy Roddick has been going through lately, grass-courts have nothing to do with it. He’s lost just two matches on grass in two years, and both to the same man, and it’s not Nicholas Massu - or Fernando Gonzalez.
Massu has won the odd match here and there on grass, but Roddick should handle him. But you may remember what these two guys did for Chile at the recent Olympic Games in Athens (doubles gold medal, anyone?); nation-based competitions are a top priority for these guys, so don’t expect them to fold up like a pile of Spaniards (Gentle[wo'>men, start your emails!).
If I’m Pat McEnroe (or James Blake), I’m very happy that I have quality doubles team in Mike and Bob Bryan, ensuring that the U.S. will be a strong favorite on Saturday. The doubles point is far more important than its statistical rank as just one in a best-of-five format, partly because it’s the swing match when the score is 1-1.
Argentina at Croatia: Zagreb, indoor carpet
Defending champ Croatia meets Argentina at home, on fast, indoor carpet. There may not be a more consistent, confident and well-adjusted Davis Cup performer today than Ivan Ljubicic, and the surface is ideal for his big serve and precise, relatively flat groundstrokes. On top of that, he’s paired in the opening match against Agustin Calleri, whom he tooled just last week in Miami.
For the Argies, the singles is all about David – that is, how David Nalbandian performs. The guy is as enigmatic as he is gifted. And anyone who thinks that he’s gotten over his “here today, gone tomorrow” (sometimes in the same match) profile because he won the ATP Championships is indulging in wishful thinking. As Mats Wilander speculated when we had a bite together in the press restaurant in Melbourne: “I’ve never seen a guy show so much flair and talent and then just withdraw and play as negatively as Nalbandian.”
If Nalbandian, who’s good enough on fast courts to have been a Wimbledon finalist, is firing on all cylinders, Argentina could give the hosts some anxious moments. But not enough of them to derail Big Red’s drive to defend the Cup.
I say, treat the courts with WD-40, Croatia, just to be sure.
Belarus at Australia: Melbourne, outdoor hard courts
For some reason, the draws seems especially intriguing this time around. Does anyone else agree that Max Mirnyi against Chris Guccione in the opener is vastly better for the visitors than Lleyton Hewitt vs. Vladimir Voltchkov? Guccione is No. 168 in the world; he’s a big lefty, matched against a comparably hulking, raw-boned righty who’s No. 51, No. 3 in doubles, and very happy on hard courts.
So the spotlight may fall squarely on Lleyton Hewitt in the pressure-filled second match. Voltchkov, despite being barely inside the world top 500 (yep, that’s no typo) is an experienced Davis Cup hand with a winning career record (39-23, overall; 8-7 on hard courts). A win may be a bridge too far, but if the Belarusians batter and bruise the Aussies and walk away from Day 1 tied, the doubles is a toss-up.
This one could come down to Voltchkov vs. Guccione for the privilege of advancing. I wouldn’t even hazard a guess on that one. . .
Russia at France: Pau, indoor carpet
Home field advantage can be a mixed blessing in Davis Cup, especially for a player as seemingly temperamental as France’s Richard Gasquet appearing in a town as seemingly nutty about sports as sleepy Pau. How would you like to be a struggling youngster having to play showman extraordinaire and all-around Big Dog Marat Safin under those circumstances?
The last time we looked, Gasquet had won just four matches so far this year – although one of them was a corker, a Davis Cup win over resurgent Tommy Haas.
To make matters worse, Arnaud Clement is a pretty shaky No. 2 for France, although he has been working his way back up the rankings and is now hovering around No. 50.
By contrast, Nikolay Davydenko is a rock; he's 7-4, with a previous win over Gasquet. The Russians may also decide to play Safin with Mikhail Youzhny in the doubles. A fired-up home crowd could really stoke the youngster Gasquet and crafty veteran Clement but Safin is apt to laugh about it all and Davydekno will be unperturbed.
My picks:
USA d. Chile (in a sweep)
Croatia d. Argentina, 3-2 in a cliffhanger
Belarus d. Australia, 3-2 (the upset special, although Lleyton turns in his usual stellar DC performance)
Russia d. France, 4-1