Pick of the Day: Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic, ATP Finals

Tuesday, November 14 will bring us one of the most exciting match-ups of the season. Jannik Sinner, who is playing in his home country, will take on Novak Djokovic in a very important matchup for the Green Group. Sinner is fresh off a dominant straight-set victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas in his opening match, while Djokovic needed three sets to beat a feisty Holger Rune. It was clear that the home crowd gave the Italian a little boost in his win over Tsitsipas, and he’ll need another one against the 24-time Grand Slam champion. However, I think this environment will actually bring out the best in Djokovic, which is why I’m comfortable laying a little juice to back the Serbian.

Over the last few years, Djokovic has been vocal about how much it bothers him that he isn’t adored by most crowds. However, at the same time, Djokovic seems to play his best tennis when he is in the villain role. He’ll certainly be up against a raucous crowd here, and I think that means that Djokovic will be more dialed in than ever—bad news for Sinner when considering this head-to-head matchup has already been dominated by the Serbian.

Djokovic is 4-0 in this head-to-series, with a straight-set win at Wimbledon his most recent victory. Sinner did have some chances to fight his way back into that match, but Djokovic seemingly won all of the big points. And while Sinner has made some real improvements in regards to his performances in big matches, I still think Djokovic will come up with the goods when he needs to.

The quick hard courts will favor Sinner to some extent, but Djokovic’s defense should still get to the 22-year-old. Djokovic is going to work his tail off to get a lot of balls back in play, and Sinner can easily rack up unforced errors if he’s forced to play a lot of extra shots. It’s also somewhat underrated that Djokovic is one of the best servers in the world. The Serbian is so good from the baseline that we don’t really think of him as a star server, but he hits his spots as well as anyone. And on courts like these, that can be impossible to return.

Meanwhile, Djokovic is still one of the best returners in history. That will manifest itself at some point, especially with Sinner being a little shaky with the ball on his racquet.

All in all, I understand why there isn’t much that separates these two in the odds right now. Sinner is playing the best tennis of his life and is highly dangerous in these conditions. But this is just too good of a price for the best player of all time, who happens to be as motivated as ever.

Pick: Djokovic To Win (-170)